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題 名 | 山區道路崩塌潛勢模式之建構與評估--以阿里山公路為例=Modeling and Analysis of Landslide Potential for Alishan Mountain Road in Southwestern Taiwan |
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作 者 | 黃彥寧; 葉昭憲; | 書刊名 | 中華水土保持學報 |
卷 期 | 51:2 2020.06[民109.06] |
頁 次 | 頁55-64 |
分類號 | 442.1 |
關鍵詞 | 崩塌潛勢分析; 不安定指數; 邏輯斯迴歸; Landslide potential model; Dangerous value method; Logistic regression model; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究以阿里山公路道路邊坡崩塌災害為例,蒐集2007年至2011年共11場致災颱洪事件資料,並選取內在及外在共7項崩塌潛勢因子,分別以不安定指數法及邏輯斯迴歸建置崩塌潛勢判別模式。經研究結果顯示,崩塌潛勢因子相對重要性最高為有效累積降雨量及地層,最低為植生狀況;而邏輯斯迴歸判別模式其整體驗證準確率達96.76 %。最後本研究以驗證後模式進行大豪雨及超大豪雨等級之崩塌潛勢分析,以預測阿里山公路相對具有較高崩塌潛勢之路段分布。 |
英文摘要 | In this study, landslide potential models for Alishan Mountain Road in southwestern Taiwan were developed and assessed. We collected data on severe typhoon events that occurred in Taiwan between 2007 and 2011 and considered seven intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The dangerous value method and logistic regression were used to build the mountain road landslide potential models, which were calibrated using typhoon event data. The results indicated that cumulative precipitation and the geological characteristics of the stratum were the most important factors in the models. The logistic regression model generated estimations of historical disaster locations with 96.76% accuracy. The calibrated landslide potential model was used to analyze and predict the distribution of areas with higher landslide potential on Alishan Mountain Road under heavy rain and extremely heavy rain conditions. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。