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題 名 | 臺灣長期皿蒸發量趨勢分析及蒸發互補關係初探=Long-term Pan Evaporation Trend and Preliminary Investigation of Evaporation Complementarity in Taiwan |
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作 者 | 陳憲宗; 李奕欣; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷 期 | 62:1 2016.03[民105.03] |
頁 次 | 頁12-28 |
分類號 | 328.61 |
關鍵詞 | 皿蒸發量; 趨勢分析; 蒸發互補理論; Pan evaporation; Trend analysis; Complementary relationship; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 隨著全球暖化,蒸發量預期會隨溫度上升而增加,但全球許多區域的皿蒸發量卻呈現下降的趨勢。台灣近二十年的短期皿蒸發量亦有下降趨勢,然因蒸發觀測儀器的更換,以致缺少具一致性的長期蒸發資料可供分析長期蒸發趨勢。本研究收集中央氣象局超過百年的長期蒸發及氣象觀測資料,分析早期20公分蒸發皿與當代A型蒸發皿觀測資料的統計特性,以及蒸發量與氣象因子的相關性。本研究採用支撐向量機發展蒸發資料重建模式,以20公分皿蒸發資料及具最高相關性的氣溫作為輸入變量,轉換為早期的A型皿蒸發重建資料,得到具一致性的長期皿蒸發資料;並利用Mann-Whitney-Pettitt改變點檢測法分析台灣長期皿蒸發量的趨勢,得知台北、台中、宜蘭、花蓮和高雄的皿蒸發趨勢為增加,嘉義、台南、恆春、台東的皿蒸發趨勢為下降;整體而言,除高雄外,長期皿蒸發趨勢有北增南減的現象。本研究初步探索蒸發互補理論,發現台灣的皿蒸發資料有呈現蒸發互補關係的跡象,但有待後續研究進一步釐清與探討。 |
英文摘要 | Under global warming, the evaporation is expected to increase as the temperature increases. However, pan evaporation data over the past 50 years show a decreasing trend in many places. This has recently been discussed, and is termed the "pan evaporation paradox." Pan observations during recent two decades in Taiwan also exhibit a decreasing trend. Although long-term pan evaporation data are available and the recording periods of some stations are more than 100 years, no long-term trend analysis of pan evaporation data has been studied in Taiwan. This is because that long-term pan evaporation data in Taiwan are not homogeneous in data properties. This inhomogeneity in long-term data is due to the use of different evaporation pans in the early time (20-cm pan) and the modern time (Class A pan). The observations from the 20-cm pan are usually greater than those from the Class A pan in the magnitude of as large as 50 mm/month in Taiwan. This study developed a data reconstruction model by using support vector machines to homogenize the long-term evaporation data from the two evaporation pans. Mann-Whitney-Pettitt method was used to detect the trend of long-term pan evaporation data. Analytical results reveal that, except for one station, the long-term pan evaporation trend in Taiwan exhibits an increasing trend in the north and a decreasing trend in the south. Preliminary analysis of the evaporation complementary relationship in Taiwan was also discussion. Using the precipitation as a variable to explain the environmental wetness, the evaporation complementary relationship can be demonstrated in Taiwan. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。