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| 題 名 | 分析師的預測能力重要嗎?--來自中國最佳分析師評選的考察證據=Is Forecast Capability Important? Evidence from the Selection of Best Analysts in China |
|---|---|
| 作 者 | 全怡; 梁上坤; 全怡; | 書刊名 | 中國會計與財務研究 |
| 卷 期 | 17:4 2015.12[民104.12] |
| 頁 次 | 頁10-69 |
| 分類號 | 563.55 |
| 關鍵詞 | 明星分析師; 預測準確性; 預測樂觀性; 預測一致性; Best analyst; Accuracy; Optimism; Consistency; |
| 語 文 | 中文(Chinese);英文(English) |
| 中文摘要 | 使用 2003 年至 2012 年我國 A 股上市公司分析師預測資料,本文研究了預測準確性、預測樂觀性和預測一致性對於當選“新財富最佳分析師”的作用。檢驗結果顯示:預測準確性和預測樂觀性在最佳分析師評選中發揮了顯著作用,不僅增加了分析師當年被評為最佳分析師的概率,還增加了其下一年連續上榜的概率;而預測一致性沒有發揮顯著作用。進一步的探索發現:(1)比較資訊環境,對於盈餘波動較大的公司,分析師的預測準確性對其當選更加重要;(2)比較市場態勢,市場態勢較好的環境下,預測準確性和預測樂觀性對其當選更加重要;(3)比較券商規模,在規模較小券商任職的分析師,預測準確性和預測一致性對其當選更加重要。本文的研究一定程度上厘清了最佳分析師這一最高榮耀評選背後的機理,為未來的研究提供了較為扎實的基礎。 |
| 英文摘要 | Using a sample of analyst forecast data for Chinese A-share listed companies from 2003 to 2012, this paper examines the role of forecast accuracy, optimism, and consistency in the selection of best analysts made by New Fortune magazine. The results indicate that both forecast accuracy and optimism play important roles in the selection of the best analysts. Both forecast accuracy and optimism increase the probability of being selected as the best analysts in the current year and also increase the probability of being selected the following year. However, the role of consistency is not a significant factor in the selection. Further analysis finds that (1) in respect of companies with high earnings volatility, forecast accuracy plays a greater role in the selection; (2) when the market is in better condition, forecast accuracy and optimism both play greater roles in the selection; and (3) for analysts in small brokerages, forecast accuracy and consistency play greater roles in the selection. This paper clarifies the mechanisms of best analyst selection to some extent and offers a solid base for future research. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。