頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 澳門幣與人民幣的最優貨幣區對衝性分析=A Study on the Integration of Pataca and RMB |
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作 者 | 王森; | 書刊名 | 澳門研究 |
卷 期 | 2014:4=75 2014.12[民103.12] |
頁 次 | 頁78-87+196 |
分類號 | 561.18 |
關鍵詞 | 澳門; 貨幣一體化; 人民幣; 澳門幣; SVAR模型; Monetary integration; RBM; Pataca; SVAR model; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 澳門作為內地聯繫葡語國家的商貿平臺,在與人民幣的合作以及推動人民幣國際化方 面具有現實意義。針對澳門幣持續弱化的態勢,選取1994-2013年的資料,利用結構向量自迴 歸模型(SVAR),對兩地貨幣一體化做定量分析。對於同種需求衝擊,內地與澳門的經濟影響 程度較為一致,內地的價格波動受其自身滯後期的影響和產出的影響模式與澳門相一致。導致兩 地產出變化的主要原因是供給衝擊,需求衝擊導致兩地物價變化。價格變動對經濟產生的影響, 澳門的持續時間大約為內地的三倍,但隨着時間的變化,兩地的影響都將遞減至零。 |
英文摘要 | Macau, as an important platform for linking mainland China to Portuguese countries, has realistic significance on the cooperation of Pataca and RMB and the internationalization of RMB. Aiming at Pataca’s tendency to weaken, this paper discussed the integration of RMB and Pataca. To study the feasibility of integrating the two currencies, the SVAR model is used with the quarterly data from 1994 to 2013 to make quantitative analysis of the integration. The conclusions drawn from the SVAR model are as follows, the economic effects of the same demand attack over mainland China and Macau are almost to the same extent; the price fluctuation of RMB affected by its stagnation is the same with that of Macau. In addition, the major reason of the output change of the two areas is the attack of supply while demand attack mainly causes the price change of commodities. As to the economic effects caused by price fluctuation, the duration time of Macau was three times as long as that of mainland China. With the passage of time, however, the effects were both reduced to zero. As a result, the economic integration of mainland China and Macau is feasible. Relevant political suggestions have been put forward in the article. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。