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題 名 | 臺灣地區颱風風速與最大瞬間風速之統計迴歸分析=A Statistical Regression Analysis on the Typhoon Wind Speed and Maximum Instantaneous Wind Speed in Taiwan Area |
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作 者 | 王惠民; 葉天降; | 書刊名 | 氣象學報 |
卷 期 | 52:1 2015.07[民104.07] |
頁 次 | 頁1-18 |
分類號 | 328.55 |
關鍵詞 | 颱風風速; 颱風地形影響; 最大瞬間風; Typhoon wind speed; Terrain effect on typhoons; Maximum instantaneous wind; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 颱風是影響臺灣地區最重要的災害性天氣系統之一,劇烈降水和強風造成損失。本文使用 2000-2010年 64個颱風期間,中央氣象局 23個地面觀測站逐時之風速﹙簡稱風速﹚與該小時最大瞬間風速﹙簡稱最大瞬間風速﹚資料及美軍聯合颱風警報中心 (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)6小時一次之颱風最佳路徑 (best track)內插成 1小時一次之路徑為研究資料。選取當颱風地面中心在東經 118–126度、北緯 19–28度範圍內, 23個地面觀測站逐時之風速與最大瞬間風速做線性統計迴歸分析,並比較颱風中心在 118-120E、23.5-28N,120-122E、23.5-28N,122-126E、23.5-28N,118-120E、 19-23.5N,120-122E、19-23.5N和 122-126E、19-23.5N等 6個區域時,各測站最大瞬間風速對風速之迴歸關係與不同測站間之差異。分析結果顯示,在颱風風速的平均趨勢上,離島測站大於沿海地區測站;而沿海地區測站又大於內陸地區測站。在颱風最大瞬間風的平均趨勢上,在測站風速相同時,內陸地區測站最大瞬間風速與風速間之差異大於沿海地區測站;而沿海地區測站最大瞬間風速與風速間之差異又大於離島測站。也就是內陸地區之陣風因子﹙最大陣風風速與平均風速之比﹚較沿海地區大,而沿海地區之陣風因子又較離島地區大,這和地形地物的摩擦與阻擋對不同地區氣流有增強與減弱作用之結果一致。關鍵詞:颱風風速、颱風地形影響、最大瞬間風。98個颱風個案,分析各颱風在臺灣地區風速之分布情形,而後依其分布特性,將侵台颱風之路徑分為五類,整理此五類颱風最大平均風速與最大陣風風速在各地之分布。從他們的結果可見,不論那一類颱風,離島之彭佳嶼、蘭嶼與東吉島都普遍較台灣本島上其它地區之風速大,沿海地區之風速也較內陸地區之風速大﹙謝等 2002﹚。 |
英文摘要 | Typhoon is one of the most important disastrous weather systems to affect Taiwan area. The heavy rainfall and strong winds caused great damage. In this study, the data of hourly wind speeds and the maximum instantaneous wind speeds of 23 surface observation stations of the Central Weather Bureau in year 2000-2010 were analyzed, during the periods when typhoon centers were inside a selected domain of 118-126 degrees East longitude and 19-28 degrees North latitude. Hourly typhoon center locations were linearly interpolated from the 6-h intervals typhoon best tracks of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Linear regression analysis between the maximum instantaneous wind speed and the wind speed, called MIV-V ﹙Maximum Instantaneous Velocity to Velocity﹚ relation, of each of the 23 stations were performed and discussed. MIV-V relation analyses were also performed for typhoon centers in six sub-domains of 118-120E and 23.5-28N, 120-122E and 23.5-28N, 122-126E and 23.5-28N, 118-120E and 19-23.5N, 120-122E and 19-23.5N, and 122-126E and 19-23.5N. The results revealed that wind speeds at stations on small islands were stronger than those of stations in coastal area. And the wind speeds at coastal stations were stronger than those of stations inland. The deviation between the maximum instantaneous wind speed and the wind speed, called wind gust, were larger inland than those in coastal area, and the wind gust in coastal area were larger than those on small islands under a given wind speed. It indicated that the gust factor inland was the largest, and the gust factor in coastal area come second, larger than that on small islands. This result is consistent with the situation that smooth air flow will be disturbed by frictional and blocking effect of mountain topography or buildings in a city. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。