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題名 | 應用貝氏統計於武器系統保固及可靠度試驗規劃=Bayesian Approaches to Warranty Assurance and Reliability Test Planning of Weapon Systems |
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作者姓名(中文) | 廖建義; 李彥澂; | 書刊名 | 新新科技年刊 |
卷期 | 11 2015.01[民104.01] |
頁次 | 頁335-342 |
分類號 | 595 |
關鍵詞 | 貝氏定理; 可靠度試驗規劃; 加速壽命試驗; 指數型無失效試驗規劃; 保固期評估; 蒙地卡羅馬可夫鏈; Bayes' theory; Reliability test planning; Accelerated life test; Bayesian zero-failure reliability demonstration testing; BAZE reliability demonstration testing; Reliability demonstration testing; Warranty evaluation; Montecarlo Markov chain; MCMC; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 可靠度試驗及保固為武器系統定型與實證之重要工作。一般著重於武器系統之功能及特性,而甚少考量其保固及可靠度,導致武器系統無法達到既定的可靠性及妥善率。在可靠度應用領域上,工程人員由實務累積了很多實用但不甚精準的經驗,例如溫度加速壽命試驗之活化能及失效數據分析之Weibull形狀參數等。相較於保守的傳統可靠度分析程序,直觀上與工程經驗及專家判斷結合的貝氏可靠度分析手法,更能切中關鍵,降低成本及縮短試驗時間。在本文中,首先探討貝氏統計於可靠度試驗規劃、加速壽命試驗與保固期評估的相關理論,並以案例說明其應用方式。 |
英文摘要 | Reliability test and warranty assurance play crucial roles in prototype confirmation anddemonstrattion of weapons systems. In general, the emphasis on the functions and performanceof weapons systems, but ignore their warranty and reliability, resulting in weapons systems cannotachieve the required reliability and availability. In reliability applications, engineers often have usefulbut imprecise knowledge from a lot of practical experience. For example, the effective activationenergy in a temperature-accelerated life test or about the Weibull shape parameter in the analysis offailure data. Comparing with the classical reliability methods, Bayesian reliability analysis offers anintuitively way to harness past experience and "expert judgment" toward a goal of reducing costs andtest time. This paper will first look at the Bayesian approaches for reliability test planning, acceleratedlife test and warranty evaluation, following with the case studies in their applications. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。