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題名 | 臺灣北部地區河川流量時空趨勢之研究=Spatial and Temporal Trends of Streamflow in the Northern Taiwan |
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作者姓名(中文) | 葉振峰; 葉信富; 李振誥; | 書刊名 | 臺灣鑛業 |
卷期 | 67:1 2015.03[民104.03] |
頁次 | 頁29-43 |
分類號 | 443.64 |
關鍵詞 | 河川流量; 趨勢分析; Mann-Kendall檢定法; Mann-Whitney-Pettit檢定法; Cumulative Deviation檢定法; Theil-Sen斜率推估法; Streamflow; Trend analysis; Mann-Kendall test; Mann-Whitney-Pettit test; Cumulative Deviation method; Thil-Sen estimator; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 由於臺灣位於板塊交界帶,地表起伏極為劇烈,在極短距離海拔高度急速拔升,因此造成臺灣河流長度較短及坡度較大等特性。河川流量在探討水資源管理、洪水及乾旱等研究皆占據重要的角色,再加上近年來氣候變化劇烈,造成降雨分布趨於極端,因此對於流量的趨勢及變異性的探討是極為重要的。本研究以臺灣北部地區長時間之流量資料利用Mann-Kendall檢定法進行流量站的趨勢分析。在資料趨勢分析的部分,本研究共分為以下不同資料型態的分析方式,分別是年平均流量、逐月月平均流量和高低流量等3種不同資料型態進行分析。另外以Theil-Sen斜率推估法進行趨勢斜率的計算,最後以Mann-Whitney-Pettit檢定法和Cumulative Deviation檢定法進行改變點分析,探討改變點並瞭解改變點前後之變化差異性。本研究結果顯示,以Mann-Kendall檢定法進行年平均流量分析研究區域12個流量站中,僅有蘭陽溪流域的西門橋站具有顯著下降之趨勢。上升趨勢大多數分布於淡水河、鳳山溪及頭前溪流域,蘭陽溪流域則多數為下降趨勢。本研究區域僅有3個流量站具有改變點出現,分別為西門橋站、福山站及上坪站,西門橋站於改變點前後年平均流量差異最大,變化量達44.09%,年平均流量於改變點後呈現下降;福山站則差異最小,變化量為14.28%。各流量站逐月月平均流量之趨勢檢定結果顯示,春季上升趨勢主要集中於淡水河及頭前溪流域,下降趨勢則位於蘭陽溪與鳳山溪流域;秋季上升趨勢主要在頭前溪流域,下降趨勢則集中在蘭陽溪、淡水河及鳳山溪3流域中。 |
英文摘要 | Located at the boundary between the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate, Taiwan features violent plate activity and rapid rise in terrain altitude. The plate activities had resulted in shorter river lengths and steeper terrains. Concerning streamflow, it is an important factor in the study of water resource management, floods, and droughts. Dramatic climate changes over recent years have created extreme rainfall distributions, making the study of streamflow trends and variability even more crucial. In this study, the long-term streamflow data and trends recorded at the gauging station in the Northern Taiwan regions were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The data used for trend analysis comprised the average annual streamflow, the average seasonal streamflow, and the high and low flows. Subsequently, the slope trend was calculated using the Theil-sen estimator. Finally, the change point analysis was conducted using the Mann-Whitney- Pettit test and the Cumulative Deviation test to gain further information about the change points and to understand the changes in streamflow before and after the change points. The average annual streamflow of 12 gauging stations in our study area was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. Our study results showed that of the 12 gauging stations, only the Ximen Bridge Station in the Lanyang River basin showed a significant downward streamflow trend. Gauging stations with an upward streamflow trend were primarily found in the Tamsui River, Fengshan River, and Touqian River basins, while those in the Lanyang River basin showed a general downward streamflow trend. Change points were observed in only three of the gauging stations in our study area, which were the Ximen Bridge Station, the Fu-Shan Station, and the Shang-Ping Station. Among the three stations, the Ximen Bridge Station exhibited the greatest change in average annual streamflow before and after the change point, at 44.09%. Its average annual streamflow began to decrease after the change point. The Fu-Shan Station demonstrated the least change in average annual streamflow, at 14.28%. According to test results on the average seasonal streamflow trends for each gauging station, in the spring, upward streamflow trends were primarily found in the Tamsui River and the Touqian River basins, while downward streamflow trends were observed in the Lanyang River and Fengshan River basins. In the fall, upward streamflow trends were primarily seen in the Touqian River basin, while downward streamflow trends were concentrated in the Lanyang River, the Tamsui River, and the Fengshan River basins. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。