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題名 | 應用衛星反演熱力及動力參數以偵測熱帶氣旋的生成--雲簇大小的自動化判定=Using Satellite-Derived Thermal and Vorticity Parameters to Detect Tropical Cyclones Formation over the Northwest Pacific--Determination of Cloud Cluster Sizes |
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作者 | 曾千祐; 劉振榮; Tseng, Chang-yo; Liu, Gin-rong; |
期刊 | 航測及遙測學刊 |
出版日期 | 20131100 |
卷期 | 17:3 2013.11[民102.11] |
頁次 | 頁161-171 |
分類號 | 328.55 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 熱帶氣旋; 熱力能量; 相對渦度; 颱風生成; Tropical cyclone; Heat energy; Relative vorticity; Typhoon formation; |
中文摘要 | 本研究將建立熱帶氣旋系統雲系大小之判定程序,以SSM/I及QuikSCAT衛星微波資料估算氣旋的熱力值與渦度值,以建立西北太平洋熱帶氣旋生成的熱力與渦度閾值。本研究選取2000年至2007年間5月至11月於西北太平洋形成之熱帶氣旋個案共106個,以其中2/3個案建立生成閾值,1/3個案進行相關驗証。驗証結果顯示,若未考慮系統大小變化(即固定範圍),35個驗証個案中有31個個案約可較JTWC提前兩天預測可能發展為熱帶氣旋的系統,可預報度為88.6%;若考慮系統雲系大小變化,則可預報度提昇為91.4%,顯示考慮系統大小可改善預報之成功率。而在2008年及2009年的24個獨立個案驗証方面,則有18個個案可成功提前預測,獲得相當不錯的結果,顯示在考量系統雲系範圍變化的情形,可有效改善熱帶氣旋生成預報之成功率。 |
英文摘要 | This study will use a dynamic computing coverage by considering the cluster size variation of the tropical cyclone system, and employ SSM/I and QuikSCAT satellite data to estimate the total heat energy and relative vorticity, respectively, in finding better thresholds for these two physical values as whether typhoons will occur or not in the Northwest Pacific. This study selects 106 tropical cyclone cases during May to November, 2000-2007 in the Northwest Pacific, two-thirds of these cases are used to establish the formation thresholds, one-thirds of these cases, which total to 35 cases, are regarded as dependant cases for verification. The result shows that if we used a fixed tropical cyclone system size, there were 31 cases can be announced almost two days earlier before the official JTWC warnings were issued. It reveals that the dynamic tropical cyclone system size could improve the prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the verification result of 24 independent cases during 2008-2009 shows that 18 cases could be predicted before JTWC. It could improve tropical cyclone prediction accuracy by considering the cluster size variation of tropical cyclone systems. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。