頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 犧牲觸擊戰術對中華職棒得分機率的影響=The Effect of Sacrifice Bunt on the Probability of Scoring in Chinese Professional Baseball League |
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作者 | 高志綱; 林華韋; 張振崗; | 書刊名 | 國立臺灣體育運動大學學報 |
卷期 | 3:2 2014.06[民103.06] |
頁次 | 頁1-12 |
分類號 | 528.955 |
關鍵詞 | 棒球戰術; 棒球統計; 戰術分析; Baseball tactics; Baseball statistics; Tactic analysis; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 目的:犧牲觸擊是亞洲棒球常用的攻擊戰術之一,犧牲打者以推進跑者,但並無研究分析此戰術對於亞洲職棒比賽得分機率的影響。本研究探討中華職棒在無人出局一壘有人的情況下使用犧牲觸擊戰術,對該局後續得0分、得1分、得1分以上機率的影響。方法:本研究使用中華職棒2013年各出局與佔壘情況下之打擊資料,分析在無人出局一壘有人情況下正常攻擊,及犧牲觸擊成功後的一出局二壘有人情況下,該局後續得0分、得1分、得1分以上之機率,以評估犧牲觸擊對得分機率的影響。結果:犧牲觸擊成功後的一出局二壘有人情況下,該局後續得0分、得1分、得1分以上之機率分別為0.620、0.343、0.029;而無人出局一壘有人情況下正常攻擊,得0分、得1分、得1分以上之機率分別為0.661、0.225、0.087。結論:犧牲觸擊可增加該局後續得1分的機率,並降低得0分的機率,但也降低了得1分以上的機率,在增加1分可能會改變比賽結果時,使用犧牲觸擊戰術可能是合理的,但會降低在該局大量得分的機率。 |
英文摘要 | Purpose: The sacrifice bunt is a common tactic by Asian baseball teams to move the runner to the next base. However, it is unclear whether it could increase the probability of scoring. This study investigated the effect of sacrifice bunts on the probabilities of scoring 0, 1, and more than 1 run in no out, runner on first situation in Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL). Design and Method: The probabilities of scoring 0, 1, and more than 1 run in no out, runner on first and 1 out, runner on second were calculated using data from CPBL 2013 regular season. Results: After sacrifice bunts, the probabilities of scoring 0, 1, and more than 1 run were 0.620, 0.343, 0.029, respectively, in 1 out, runner on second. Without sacrifice bunts, the probabilities of scoring 0, 1, and more than 1 run were 0.661, 0.225, 0.087, respectively, in no out, runner on first. Conclusion: This study suggested that the sacrifice bunt tactic could increase the probability of scoring 1 run, while decrease the probability of scoring more than 1 run. In the situations where 1 run could change the result of the game, the sacrifice bunt may be a rational tactic. However, it would decrease the probability of scoring more than 1 run in the inning. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。