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題 名 | 颱風路徑與侵臺風雨預報技術改進2012年研究成果=Study on the Improvements of Typhoon Track, Winds and Rainfall Forecasts over Taiwan Area--Some Findings in Year 2012 |
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作 者 | 葉天降; 李清勝; 楊明仁; 張保亮; 簡國基; 洪景山; 鳳雷; 陳建河; | 書刊名 | 氣象學報 |
卷 期 | 51:1 2014.07[民103.07] |
頁 次 | 頁1-24 |
分類號 | 328.888 |
關鍵詞 | 颱風; 颱風風雨預報; 颱風路徑預報; 數值天氣預報; 資料同化; 雙都卜勒雷達反演分析; 概念模式; 系集預報; Typhoon; Typhoon winds and rainfall forecast; Typhoon track forecast; Numerical weather prediction; Data assimilation; Dual Doppler radars analysis; Mesoscale conceptual model; Ensemble forecast; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 「颱風路徑與侵臺風雨預報技術發展」為國家科學委員會支助,由 2010年 8月起為期 3年,以提升颱風路徑與風雨預報作業能力為目標之一整合型研究計畫,研究之進行包含「侵臺颱風環島雙都卜勒雷達風場合成分析之研究與作業化」、「侵臺颱風風雨及內核結構演變之中尺度模擬與分析」、「利用淺水方程模式探討臺灣地形對颱風路徑影響及改進颱風風力預報」、「改進區域數值天氣預報系統以提升臺灣地區颱風豪雨預報研究」、「系集預報系統對颱風路徑與臺灣地區定量降水預報之研究」、「颱風結構及與環境交互作用之影響」、「侵臺颱風發生西南部山區豪雨之觀測指標建立研究」、「異常結構之侵臺颱風的結構特徵與辨識法則」等 8部分。 研究至 2012年中主要成果,在作業應用方面,建立以上游風速估計臺灣西南部山區颱風降雨規模的預報方法,完成雙都卜勒雷達反演風場作業系統測試,即時產出雙都卜勒風場,以供颱風結構等之研判預報應用,引用 new trigger Kain-Fritsch積雲參數化法,發展於分析時加入 ECMWF部分分析場方法,改進TWRF模式預報,與發展颱風初始渦漩擾動場方法以改善 WRF颱風系集路徑預報。在地形對颱風影響等之認知上,分析與了解臺灣地區異常降雨颱風之異常降雨指數分布,了解在地形以外之區域,傳統的 β效應顯得較為重要,而颱風中心在地形西側的形成主要是來自於地形 β效應與相對渦度平流的貢獻,也了解線狀強對流是導致颱風眼牆結構改變與路徑打轉的重要物理機制,而非對稱加熱作用以及颱風平均風場作用項是此時位渦加強的主要貢獻項,同時由研究也得知颱風紮實程度影響颱風內部結構之穩定度。 |
英文摘要 | “A study on the technical development of typhoon track, winds and rainfall forecast over Taiwan area” is a three-year integrated research project supported by the National Science Council beginning from 2010, which aims to enhance the capability of typhoon forecast over Taiwan area. Topics of the study include: dual-Doppler synthetic analysis of typhoon circulations based on Taiwan radar network and its applications to real-time operation, mesoscale modeling and analysis of the inner-core structure changes and rainfall associated with a typhoon affecting Taiwan, a study on Taiwan terrain effect on typhoon motion by using a shallow water model, a study on the improvement of mesoscale numerical model to enhance typhoon heavy rainfall forecast in Taiwan area, typhoon track and rainfall forecast in an ensemble forecast system, typhoon structure and its interactions with ambient environment, building the indicator of heavy rainfall for Typhoon in Southwest mountainous area of Taiwan, the characteristics and identification principles for landfall typhoons with abnormal structures. Major achievements through the middle of 2012 on operational use include refinement of the TWRF model, refinement of WRF ensemble model on typhoon track forecast with taking in vortex structure perturbation in initial fields, heavy rainfall estimation over Southwest mountainous Taiwan using upstream wind speed, and development of an operational system for dual Doppler radars wind fields. Those are very helpful to the Central Weather Bureau operational typhoon forecast. As to the improvement in our understanding of typhoon motion and structural change, the study shows when a typhoon encounters mountainous terrain, terrain beta effect and advection effects are the dominant terms to affect the typhoon motion near the terrain. On the Typhoon Haitang’s (2005) looping motion before its landing in Taiwan, the study finds that the forming of the strong band-structured convection system acts as a critical mechanism, and the asymmetric heating effect of the convection contributes to the potential vorticity change. The study also finds that the compactness is a useful index to categorize typhoons as whether the central structure is easily modified by the environment. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。