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題 名 | 桃園海岸防風林時空變遷之研究=A Study on Spatial-Temporal Changes of Windbreaks in the Tao-Yuan Coastal Area |
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作 者 | 連美綺; 吳治達; 莊永忠; 廖學誠; | 書刊名 | 工程環境會刊 |
卷 期 | 30 2013.01[民102.01] |
頁 次 | 頁21-34 |
分類號 | 436.285 |
關鍵詞 | 土地利用; 防風林; 馬可夫模式; Logit模式; Land use; Windbreak; Markov model; Logit model; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 隨著經濟的快速成長,台灣的土地利用型態不斷地在改變,尤其是沿海區域,常被開發為工業區或其它用途。在工業區不斷地取代著農業用地的情況之下,當地的自然環境與人文景觀也產生巨大變化,桃園海岸地區即是一例。本研究為了瞭解桃園海岸地區土地利用變遷情形,以及土地利用變遷對於當地防風林的影響,乃利用馬可夫模式與logit模式,進行研究區內1978年至2004年土地利用之時空變遷分析,並模擬預測未來防風林可能的發展狀況。結果顯示,未來研究區內防風林面積會從1978年的13%下降到2108年的8%,農地由69%降至5%,而建地則從6%增加至52%,建地對研究區內之土地利用型態影響甚大。另外,根據logit模式分析,海拔高、距農地、水體、道路、沙地及空/草地距離等6項解釋變數對防風林發展具有顯著的影響力。經由馬可夫與logit模式結合應用,可預測未來防風林之空間分佈,並得知可能減少的所在位置。 |
英文摘要 | The land use patterns are constantly changing in Taiwan due to the rapid economic growth. Mostly, the coastal areas are often developed for industrial parks and other utilities. When industrial parks continually replace lots of agricultural lands, the local natural environments and human landscapes are also changed dramatically, for example in the Tao-Yuan coastal area. The purpose of this research is to understand the land use changes in Tao-Yuan coastal area, and to study the effects of land use changes on the windbreaks. The Markov model and logit model are applied to analyze the spatial-temporal changes of land use patterns in the study area during the period from 1978 to 2004. Moreover, we try to predict the windbreaks development situation in the future. Results show that the proportions of windbreak will decrease from 13% in 1978 down to 8% in 2108; while the agricultural proportions also decrease from 68% down to 5%, but the built-up proportions increase from 6% up to 52%. It is obviously that the land use patterns in study area are strongly affected by the built-up development. In addition, based on the logit model analysis, these 6 explanatory variables have significant effects on the windbreak development, including elevation, and distance to farm, water, road, sand dune, and bare/ grass lands. Based on our research, it is very suitable for combining Markov and logit models to predict the spatial distribution of windbreaks, and to realize the location of decreasing windbreak in the future. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。