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題名 | 植物有害生物量化風險性評估之建立:以西方花薊馬為例=Establishment of Quantitative Risk Assessment for Plant Pests: The Example of Western Flower Thrips (Frankliniella occidentalis) |
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作者 | 劉弘一; 張念台; 陳子偉; 蔣國司; | 書刊名 | 台灣農學會報 |
卷期 | 14:2 2013.04[民102.04] |
頁次 | 頁109-129 |
分類號 | 433.3 |
關鍵詞 | 有害生物風險分析; 量化風險性評估; 西方花薊馬; 帶蟲率; Pest risk assessment; Quantitative risk assessment; Frankliniella occidentalis; Infestation rate; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 有害生物風險評估是一種依據科學原理的評估方法,可依據其結果採行適當之防疫檢疫措施以保護農業生產安全。有害生物的風險分析可採用定量或定性分析,而以定量分析的結果較易以具體數字說明,也容易與其他的分析結果比較。因此本文是以西方花薊馬為實例,來說明此害蟲之習性、生態環境與寄主等因素,分析與評估其在台灣存活、繁衍以及立足的可能性,最終計算出入侵台灣的機率;並且使用敏感性分析來評估各相關因子對最終結果(傳入、立足與散佈)影響之重要性;研究結果顯示,每年檢測出帶有西方花薊馬的農產品中,有126批所帶有之西方花薊馬已能在台灣立足,此分析結果可提供防檢疫機關在決策時之重要參考。 |
英文摘要 | Pest risk assessment is a method based on scientific principles. The result of the assessment can provide appropriate phytosanitary measures to ensure the safety of agricultural production. In general, pest risk analysis consists of quantitative or qualitative analysis. The advantage of quantitative risk analysis could be precisely expressed and easier to interpret than other analysis results. Therefore, the objective of the article was to develop a quantitative risk model to estimate the probability of introduction of western flower thrips from infested areas into noninfested areas. The model was based on the recorded incidence of western flower thrips (Frankliniella occidentalis) and their estimated probability of survival during storage, transportation, and arrival in Taiwan, by using data from specific studies and from wider knowledge of the phenology, life history, and biology of the species. Moreover, sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the relevant factors in relation to the final results (entry, establishment, and spread). The results of the study show each year western flower thrips found in 126 batches among the entire imported agricultural commodity carrying these pests can survive in Taiwan. We believe the results of the quantitative assessment can provide the phytosanitary authorities with an important reference in decision-making. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。