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題名 | 氣候變遷情境下日輻射量資料之衍生=Generation of Daily Radiation Dataset Based on Climate Scenarios |
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作者姓名(中文) | 林以淳; 朱容練; 劉俊志; 蘇元風; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷期 | 62:1 2016.03[民105.03] |
頁次 | 頁29-40 |
分類號 | 328.481 |
關鍵詞 | 氣候變遷; 統計降尺度; 日輻射量; 天氣衍生器; Climate change; Statistical downscaling; Daily solar radiation; Weather generator; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 日輻射量是農業領域重要的變數,對作物生長有直接的影響。然而,由於歷史觀測資料的匱乏與氣候模式資料的不足,直接推估氣候變遷情境下日輻射量的變化並不容易。另一方面,日輻射量被發現與其他氣象變數有關,有間接推算的可行性。本研究以日夜溫差估算日輻射量,利用統計方法與歷史觀測資料建立日輻射量與日夜溫差的迴歸式;而氣候變遷情境的日夜溫差資料則由天氣衍生器繁衍、計算而得;最後將未來的日夜溫差代入迴歸式,即可估算氣候變遷情境下未來的日輻射量。研究成果除了氣候變遷情境下日輻射量資料產製、未來時期相對於基期的日輻射量變化趨勢評估,亦加入衛星影像反演之日輻射量資料進行比較。 |
英文摘要 | Having a direct impact on crop growth, solar radiation is a crucial variable for agricultural risk assessments. However, projecting daily solar radiation based on climate scenarios is difficult due to the lack of sufficient observed data and the insufficiency and the incompleteness of current climate models. A number of researches have indicated that radiation can be derived from other climate variables. In this study, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature are used to generate daily solar radiation. The regression function relating radiation to temperature is built using the observed data, while the future daily weather data is produced by stochastic weather generator. Finally, substituting the future daily weather data into the regression function, the daily radiation data based on climate scenarios are generated. Differences between baseline and future projections of solar radiation are estimated. Furthermore, an inter-comparison of three solar radiation datasets derived from synthetic data, measured by weather stations, and derived from satellite imagery is evaluated. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。