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題 名 | 雷達定量降水估計在河川洪水預報模式之應用=Radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimation for Flood Forecast in Rivers |
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作 者 | 蔡孟原; 許銘熙; 傅金城; 林李耀; 王安翔; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷 期 | 57:4 2011.12[民100.12] |
頁 次 | 頁49-68 |
分類號 | 443.42 |
關鍵詞 | 降水估計; 河川水位預報; 暴洪演算; 類神經網路; Precipitation estimation; River stage forecasting; Flash flood routing; Artificial neural networks; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 洪水預報為許多非工程防洪方法之重要基礎,但是台灣的地理環境特殊,增加即時洪水預報的困難性。緊急應變作業人員若缺乏適當的資訊,則無法準確發佈警戒並採取必要措施。因此,建立有效率且精確的洪水預報模式,可提供洪水資訊以強化決策作業及降低洪災損失。本研究結合QPESUMS系統網格式的雷達定量降水估計,透過類神經網路分別以回饋式神經網路、自組織特徵映射類神經網路及倒傳遞類神經網路等模式建立降雨-水位預報模式,藉以探討雷達雨量在模式預報1-3小時河川水位之模擬成效,並擇優運用於水理預報模式。經由2008年的鳳凰、辛樂克及薔蜜等三場颱洪事件的模擬結果顯示,利用雷達觀測技術可以掌握颱洪期間流域內中小尺度的降雨時間與空間變化,對於水位站之水位預報模式具有良好的模擬效果,當水位預報值回饋至河川洪水數值模式中,除提升洪水預報的可信度外,亦能提供全河系各斷面之預報水位。 |
英文摘要 | Flood forecasting is one of the basic tools of the non-structural flood mitigation measures. However, the geographical and environmental conditions in Taiwan are the challenge for task of real-time flood forecasting. The emergency operations authorities are difficult to issue warning and take proper response if they are lack of flood forecasting information. An efficient and accurate flood forecasting model is developed for gener-ating the flood information to enhance decision-making and reduce flood damage. This study incorporates the QPESUMS (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors) technique and three ANN (Artificial neural networks) models, including RNN (Recurrent neural networks), SOM (Self-organizing maps), and BPNN (Back-propagation neural networks) for the real-time rainfall and river stage forecasting. Three Typhoons events in 2008, Typhoon Fung-Wong, Sinlaku and Jangm were taken as the model testing. The ANNs were used to obtain the 1-3 hours stage forecast at given river sections. Simulation results have good agreement with the observations because small temporal and spatial variations in rainfall within the river basin are well caught by QPESUMS. By feeding the water stage forecasts back into the physical river flood routing models, the water stage along the entire river can be obtained, and the accuracy of stage forecast is improved. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。