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題 名 | 臺鐵列車營運連鎖延滯之模擬分析應用=Simulation Analysis and Application on Knock-on Delay of Taiwan Regional Railway |
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作 者 | 劉昭榮; 黃承傳; | 書刊名 | 軌道經營與管理 |
卷 期 | 11 2012.07[民101.07] |
頁 次 | 頁38-63 |
分類號 | 557.24 |
關鍵詞 | 初始延滯; 連鎖延滯; 運轉調度策略; 隨機特性; First delay; Knock-on delay; Timetable recovery strategy; Stochastic nature; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 鐵路系統容量不足往往是導致列車延滯之主因,尤其在初始延滯(first delay)發生後,後續所引 發的連鎖延滯(knock-on delay)擴散效應對列車正常營運之影響甚大。本研究依據臺鐵系統之 運轉特性構建一模擬模式用以推估連鎖延滯,並經驗證模式的合理性後,續針對不同初始延滯程 度衍生之連鎖延滯擴散,及不同運轉調度策略(timetable recovery strategy)對連鎖延滯降低進 行系統分析;另亦分別針對列車密度、初始延滯及運轉調度策略對連鎖延滯之影響及其整體交互 作用影響進行分析;此外,本研究也深入探討具隨機特性關鍵因素所產生連鎖延滯之班表穩定度 問題。本研究所提出之分析架構及內容,除可有效釐清連鎖延滯關鍵影響因素及程度,構建之模 擬模式更可作為相關改善策略之分析工具。 |
英文摘要 | Train delays of a railway system are affected by many factors and one of the most important factors is insufficient line capacity. Once a first delay occurs, the delay propagation(i.e., knock-on delay)always interrupts train operation. This research develops a comprehensive simulation model to estimate knock-on delays. This research first collects real data of Taiwan railway system to verify and validate the model. The impacts on knock-on delays of different first delays and timetable recovery strategies are then evaluated. Based on the simulation results of the case study, regression analysis is employed to calibrate the relationships between knock-on delays and three key factors, which are train density, first delay and timetable recovery strategy. To clarify the stochastic nature of the key factors affecting knock-on delays, this research also evaluates timetable stability of Taiwan railway system. In summary, this research proposes a framework and a simulation model which can be applied to analyze the impacts on knock-on delay by all kinds of changes in infrastructures, operational situations and controlling strategies. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。