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題名 | 颱風路徑與侵臺颱風伴隨風雨預報技術之發展研究2009年成果=The Study on Forecast Technique Development of the Typhoon Track, Rainfall and Winds over Taiwan Area in Year 2009 |
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作者 | 葉天降; 李清勝; 楊明仁; 馮欽賜; 張保亮; 何台華; Yeh, T.-C.; Lee, C.-S.; Yang, M.-J.; Fong, C.-T.; Chang, P.-L.; Hor, T.-H.; |
期刊 | 氣象學報 |
出版日期 | 20110900 |
卷期 | 48:3 2011.09[民100.09] |
頁次 | 頁43-58 |
分類號 | 328.884 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 颱風; 颱風雨量預報; 颱風路徑預報; 資料同化; 渦旋移置技術; 雙都卜勒雷達反演分析; 東北季風共伴; 流量模擬; Typhoon; Typhoon rainfall forecast; Typhoon track forecast; Data assimilation; Vortex relocation; Dual Doppler radars analysis; Typhoons coupling with the northeasterly monsoon; Water flow simulation; |
中文摘要 | 提升颱風預報作業能力以減低災害損失為現階段防災研究之重點研究課 題,「颱風路徑與侵臺颱風伴隨風雨預報技術之發展」則為此研究課題下行 政院國家科學委員會支持之一整合型研究,以提升數值模擬加強颱風風雨預 報力為整體目標,本文為此整合型研究2009年研究成果摘要報告。 研究之進行包含「颱風都卜勒速度觀測與地面風力關係之研究及都卜勒 風場反演之作業化」、「全球數值模式於颱風路徑預報之應用與發展」、 「颱風中尺度定量降雨預報技術之改進」、「颱風豪雨及洪水藕合預報技術 之研究」、「臺灣東南近海颱風受地形影響的中尺度結構分析」與「建置 WRF模式於颱風預報作業應用之研究」等6部分。 研究主要成果包括建立網連雷達回波資料品質控制程序、建立雙都卜勒 雷達反演分析、建立日本嶼那國島剖風儀即時資料的接收與分析、改進中央 氣象局全球預報模式之邊界層及積雲對流參數化、建立WRF模式4DVAR、 了解WRF不同邊界層處理之颱風路徑預報差異、持續改進渦旋移置技術於 颱風路徑預報作業應用、建立東北季風共伴類型之颱風降雨氣候模式、使用 雷達觀測參數推估降雨進行模擬流量等。 |
英文摘要 | To improve the capability of typhoon forecasting and thus to reduce the damage loss induced by destructive typhoons are top priority research topics of the National Science and Technology Program for Hazards Mitigation supported by the National Science Council. “The Forecast Technique Development Studies on Typhoon Track, Rainfall and Winds over Taiwan Area” is one of the integrated research themes under this Program and aimed to improve forecasts of the track, heavy rainfall and strong winds for a typhoon striking Taiwan. This paper summarizes the outcomes of the integrated study in year 2009. Tasks of the study include: Doppler radar wind analysis and implementation of the wind analysis scheme into the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) operational environment, development and application of a global numerical model for typhoon track forecast, improvement of the typhoon mesoscale quantitative precipitation forecast, study of the forecasting technique for typhoonassociated heavy rainfall and severe flooding, study on the implementation of WRF typhoon forecasting component in the operational environment of CWB, study on the Taiwan terrain effect on structures of the invading typhoons. The results of the studies are fruitful, which include a Doppler radar data control procedure and the dual Doppler radars wind analysis algorithm which have been successfully implemented in CWB operational environment. The physical packages of the planetary boundary layer and the cumulus parameterization of the CWB global numerical model and the vortex relocation procedure of CWB WRF model have been refined. A WRF 4Dvar system also has been implanted in CWB. For improving typhoon rainfall forecast, typhoon rainfall climatological model for typhoons coupling with the northeasterly monsoon has been developed. The typhoon rainfall climatological model also has been improved by using the satellite data-derived typhoon rainfall climatology. A scheme to integrate rainfall estimated by using improved radar analysis algorithm, into the water flow simulation has been developed. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。