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題名 | 應用點估法及決策樹輔助邊坡整治之風險分析=An Application of Point Estimate Method and Decision Tree in Risk Analysis of Slope Mitigations |
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作者 | 馮正一; 張育瑄; 葉柳青; Feng, Zheng-yi; Chang, Yu-hsan; Yeh, Liu-ching; |
期刊 | 水土保持學報 |
出版日期 | 20091200 |
卷期 | 41:4 2009.12[民98.12] |
頁次 | 頁371-387 |
分類號 | 442.3 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 點估法; 邊坡穩定性; 決策樹; 風險分析; Point estimate method; Slope stability; Decision tree; Risk analysis; |
中文摘要 | 本研究選定邊坡穩定處理兩處為風險分析案例,主要利用以點估法(PEM)及決策樹輔助進 行整治之決策。為考量影響邊坡穩定之不確定因素, 以點估法將參數之不確定性加以 考量, 並利用Slide 程式模擬不同方案及不同參數變化下之安全係數。最後將所得破壞機 率與所需成本之關係計算出風險值,利用所算得之風險值探討坡地處理整治方案 之最適合性, 以利整治之決策。 |
英文摘要 | This study selected mitigation of two slopes as examples for demonstration of the decision support using point estimate method and decision tree to calculate risk. The uncertainties of slope stability and failure probabilities are evaluated using point estimate method using the values parameters of one plus and minus standard deviation. The factors of safety for slopes were evaluated using the Slide code with Morgenstern and Price method. Risks were evaluated by multiplying the failure probability with consequent costs. The risk of the slope mitigations then can be calculated for assisting decision makers. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。