頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 水鳥種數時間數列分析之研究=Time Series Analysis of Waterfowl Species |
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作者 | 陳鴻烈; 周孟融; | 書刊名 | 水土保持學報 |
卷期 | 41:3 2009.08[民98.08] |
頁次 | 頁241-255 |
分類號 | 388.8 |
關鍵詞 | 相乘性分解模式; 相加性季節變動模式; 時間數列; Multiplicative decomposition method; Additive decomposition method; Time series; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究以大肚溪口鳥類調查資料計算水鳥種數 (Number of species),並利用相乘性分解模 式與相加性季節變動模式進行大肚溪口水鳥種數之時間數列分析,以瞭解78 至96 年間大肚溪 口水鳥種數變化情形。兩模式之水鳥種數長期趨勢 (T) 都顯示隨著時間 (t) 而減少。在相乘模 式中,其間的關係可表示為 T = 61.575586 - 0.04532t;相加模式中則可表示為 T = 61.638312 - 0.046083t,其中 t = 1, 2, 3, … 228。在季節變動 (S) 方面,結果顯示相加與相乘模式每年皆有 二個高峰期,分別在四月與十一月。在循環變動 (C) 中發現,約兩年即為一個次循環。而不 規則變動 (I) 則顯示兩模式皆呈不規則變化。由上述可知,兩模式之結果大致相同,且大肚溪 口水鳥種數明顯下降。 |
英文摘要 | The objectives of this study were to maturate and compare two practical procedures for time series analysis of waterfowl species in Da-du estuary, at central part of Taiwan. A multiplicative decomposition method as well as an additive decomposition method have been adapted to determine the species variations, including long-term (T), seasonal (S), circular (C), and irregular (I). The two methods indicated a similar result: (1) Both showed a long-term trend (T) decreased with time (t), as following equations, (A) T = 61.575586 - 0.04532t for multiplicative decomposition method, (B) T = 61.638312 - 0.046083t for additive decomposition method; (2) There are two seasonal high peaksin April and November each year; and (3) A circular change, every two years. Both methods were reasonably well to present the waterfowl species changes numerically. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。