查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 臺灣地區97至145年人口推計及分析=Analysis of Population Projections for Taiwan Area: 2008 to 2056 |
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作者 | 王玲; 樓玉梅; 范瑟珍; 趙偉慈; | 書刊名 | 臺灣經濟論衡 |
卷期 | 7:8 2009.08[民98.08] |
頁次 | 頁36-69 |
分類號 | 542.1 |
關鍵詞 | 臺灣; 人口變動; 人口推計模型; 人口政策; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文旨在分析我國人口變動趨勢,探討目前所面臨問題,並深入論述我 國人口推計模型之依據、相關假設及推計過程,希冀作為未來人口推計工作 之參考。本文推計結果發現:(1)生育率降幅將趨緩,幼童及學齡人口漸減;(2)工作年齡人口將減少,其中,基層人力供給亦將減少,且中高齡所 占比率漸增;(3)移入人口雖可為勞動力,惟仍無法停止人口高齡化之轉 變;(4)平均壽命延長,高齡人口將增加。最後,本文針對每項發現提出相 關政策意涵,俾作為未來政策參考依據。 |
英文摘要 | This paper aims to extend the understanding and utilization of population projections in different ways: first, by analyzing recent developments in marriage-related and fertility-related behaviours, mortality rate, life expectancy at birth, and international immigrant; second, by developing population projection models under the various projections variants and scenarios based on the above findings; third, by exploring the effects of changing population structure and proposing polices. The results show that decline in population is irreversible, school-aged population and working-aged population will be in decline. On the contrary, the proportion of middle-aged and older workers will be on the rise. In conclusion, we address those findings with policy implication. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。