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題名 | 中小企業之財務危機預警模型與新巴賽爾協定信用評等=Bankruptcy Prediction and Basel Ⅱ Credit Rating of SMEs |
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作者 | 張大成; 劉美纓; 萬智傑; Chang, Ta-cheng; Liu, Mei-ying; Wan, Chih-chieh; |
期刊 | 中小企業發展季刊 |
出版日期 | 20080900 |
卷期 | 9 2008.09[民97.09] |
頁次 | 頁199-219 |
分類號 | 553.977 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 中小企業; 財務危機預警模型; 信用評等; 新巴塞爾協定; SMEs; Bankruptcy prediction model; Basel Ⅱ credit rating; |
中文摘要 | 本研究採用Logit迴歸方法,以1,500家台灣中小企業為樣本,建立財務危機預警模型,檢視影響中小企業經營危機的財務與非財務變數資訊。其次,根據新巴塞爾協定之規範進行信用評等。實證結果顯示:台灣中小企業之財務預警指標為現金/總資產、存貨/銷貨收入淨額、應收帳款週轉次數、平均收帳天數及營業毛利率;非財務預警指標為銀行往來家數、公司年齡、保證人人數、額度使用率及員工人數。此外,台灣中小企業信用評等呈現集中評等兩端之雙峰分佈,而與一般大型企業單峰分佈情形不同。 |
英文摘要 | Using a sample containing financial and nonfinancial data of 1,500 Taiwan small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), we first employ the Logistic regression to develop the bankruptcy prediction model for SMEs. Then we implement the credit rating for the SMEs under the Basel II. The empirical results show that our financial predictors include cash/total assets, inventory/net sales, turnovers of account receivables, average collection period and rate of gross operating income ; the non-financial predictors include number of correspondent bank, age of firm, number of guarantor, utilization rate of credit line and number of employees. Different from the large firms, the credit rating of Taiwan SMEs exhibits a bimodal distribution. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。