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題名 | 出生人口下降對幼稚教育供需影響之探討=Analysis of the Preschool Education Resources Distribution Affected by the Decreasing Birth Rate |
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作者 | 林松柏; 張鈿富; 吳柏林; | 書刊名 | 國教學報 |
卷期 | 19 2007.12[民96.12] |
頁次 | 頁3-28 |
分類號 | 523.27 |
關鍵詞 | 人口結構變遷; 出生率下降; 幼稚教育供需數量; 時間數列; Decreasing birth rate; Demographic structure change; Preschool education; Time series; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文旨在預測未來 12 年幼稚教育學生人數的發展趨勢,並據此提出因應策略,以及時修訂幼稚教育政策發展的方向。本研究所採的分析方法為時間數列分析,由 ARIMA 模式預測結果發現,學生人數有逐年下降的趨勢。首先,本研究以歷年幼稚教育的學生人數發展趨勢結構進行分析,共區分成以四年為一期的三個主要發展時期,並分別論述各期的發展概況。接著,則以幼稚教育學生人數預測結果為基礎,進行未來幼稚教育需求數量的評估。本研究分別建構兩種模式推估未來學校數、師資數和班級數的需求數量。在法規標準模式(學校規模 90 人,生師比 15 人,班級規模 30 人)下,未來幼稚教育平均每年學校數須減少 86 所,教師人數須減少 661 人,班級數須減少 313.5 班。而以維持現況模式計算,則平均每年學校數須減少 20 所,教師人數須減少 82 人,班級數須減少 65 班。其次,則以各縣市94 學年度幼稚教育的供給量為基準,計算未來各縣市幼稚教育的需求量,發現受到少子化的影響,台北市、台北縣和桃園縣的需求量逐年下降幅度最高,高雄市、台中市、高雄縣、台南縣等八個縣市次之,其他縣市則較低。最後則是根據研究結果,提出結論與建議。 |
英文摘要 | The main purpose of this study is to forecast the number of preschool students for the next twelve years, and present timely strategies and amendments for future preschool education policies. The ARIMA model shows that the number of preschooler will decrease every year. The study first analyzes the decreasing number of preschoolers by classifying them into three separate four-year periods, then investigates the contents of each period. Based on the result of analysis, the study conducts an estimation of future preschool education demand. The study constructs two models to forecast the demand of schools, teachers, and classes of future preschool education. The standard policy model (states that: the school size should be limited to 90 students, student-teacher ratio to be equal or less then 15:1, and class size should be limited to 30 students) estimates the future preschool education demand to diminish, with 86 schools, 661 teachers, and 313.5 classes eliminated each year. Whereas the maintenance model estimates the future preschool education demand to reduce, with the elimination of 20 schools, 82 teachers, and 65 classes each year. Based on preschool education information from all counties and cities in Taiwan in 2005, this research also forecasts each county’s future preschooler demand. It finds that the biggest reduction occurs in Taipei city, Taipei County, and Taoyuan, while less reduction occurs in eight other counties including Kaohsiung city, Taichung city, Kaohsiung County, and Tainan County. Finally, the study presents its conclusions and recommendations based on the above research findings. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。