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題 名 | 碧利斯(2006)颱風引進西南氣流之雷達資料同化研究=Numerical Study of Radar Data Assimilation during Tropical Storm Bilis (2006) Affecting Taiwan |
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作 者 | 簡國基; 李湘源; 游志淇; | 書刊名 | 氣象學報 |
卷 期 | 47:2 2008.03[民97.03] |
頁 次 | 頁77-94 |
分類號 | 328.63 |
關鍵詞 | 熱啟動; 西南氣流定量降水預報; LAPS/WRF; Short-range QPF; Diabatic data assimilation; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究探討、評估衛星與都卜勒雷達資料對高解析度(2公里)LAPS/WRF定量降水預報之成效;挑選2006年碧利斯颱風引進西南氣流造成南臺灣高屏地區劇烈降水為例,共設計四組預報實驗:實驗CTRL(僅引用衛星資料進行同化分析)、實驗REF(同時引用衛星、雷達回波資料)、實驗VR(同時引用衛星、雷達徑向風場資料)及實驗VREF(同時引用衛星、雷達回波、雷達徑向風場資料)。 實驗CTRL對碧利斯颱風引進西南氣流之高屏山區豪雨預報有過強的趨勢(Bias值偏高),對高屏平地及沿海地區的降雨預報則有偏低現象,只引入衛星資料對此個案之降水預報成效不盡理想。實驗REF與實驗CTRL之比較結果顯示,加入雷達降水回波資料,略可增進降水預報成效,但增進程度並不顯著。實驗VR與實驗CTRL之比較結果顯示,加入雷達徑向風場資料,有增進本個案在高屏地區劇烈降水預報之成效,無論高屏山區或平地地區,實驗VR之降水預報皆優於實驗CTRL。實驗VREF在高屏地區的降水預報結果為四組實驗中最優者,顯示對本研究個案而言,若同化完整的衛星及雷達資料,可得到最接近實際之高屏地區定量降水預報結果。 此外,針對南臺灣四縣市比較區域平均實際降雨與預報雨量顯示,距離雷達觀測較近的地區,雷達資料同化對區域雨量預報的正貢獻較顯著。未來若有機會在七股與墾丁雷達站之間(如:屏東附近)加設另一都卜勒雷達觀測設備,有機會提升LAPS/WRF對於臺灣南部的劇烈天氣定量降水預報能力。 |
英文摘要 | A series of high-resolution numerical simulations were conducted to examine the impact of satellite and Doppler radar data on the extremely torrential rain prediction associated with the southwesterly flow induced by Tropical Storm Bilis (2006). The numerical experiments were performed using the LAPS/WRF system with the 2-km horizontal grid spacing. In the control experiment, the high bias in simulating the rainfall amounts was found when the LAPS cloud analysis only used the satellite data (MTSAT) to initialize WRF model. The extremely torrential rainfall prediction was slightly improved when the radar reflectivity was included. If the Doppler radial winds data was also assimilated, the WRF model predicted more realistic rainfall distribution than the other experiments. The assimilation of data from Doppler radial winds player an important role in the improvement of rainfall prediction in this case study. In addition, the verification of area-averaged rainfall amounts suggested that radar data had a better beneficial impact on precipitation forecasts in the region where is nearby the Doppler radar stations. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。