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題 名 | 從營運公司觀點介紹臺北捷運運量推估方式=Journey Estimation of Taipei Metro in Term of Taipei Metro |
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作 者 | 陳世宏; | 書刊名 | 軌道經營與管理 |
卷 期 | 3 2008.08[民97.08] |
頁 次 | 頁72-80+82-86+88 |
分類號 | 557.85 |
關鍵詞 | 運量預測; 時間數列; 預測模式; Ridership; Journey; Time series; Travel demand model; Journey forecasting; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 論及運量預測方法,以整體運輸需求預測模式最廣為應用,但建 立一套完整且持續更新的預測模式相對必須付出較高的維護與作 業成本,對於捷運營運機構而言,不盡符合經濟效益及快速預測 之需求。 臺北捷運自木柵線通車營運已逾10年,在旅運量統計上,藉由自 動收費系統累積相當多且完整的數位資料,亦提供最直接、最可 靠的捷運運量推估元素,因此,本文介紹臺北捷運公司如何以既 有運輸需求模式搭配實際運量時間數列分析的交互應用,產出全 日運量、尖峰運量、站間運量等不同的運量推估結果,以達到預 算編列、營運管理、電聯車採購及列車運行計畫等規劃需求之目 的。 |
英文摘要 | Travel demand models are widely used to estimate future demand for travel, but there is a high cost for setting up an integral model that can be updated and ongoing use. Such models do not satisfy the need of metro companies for cost efficiency and the need to generate a response within a short time. More than ten years have passed since the first line of the Taipei Metro opened to revenue service on March 28th, 1996. TRTC has accumulated a huge mass of digital ticket records through its automatic fare collection system. The records provide direct and credible data for estimating the number of journeys taken on Taipei Metro. This article provides an introduction to how TRTC applies travel demand models and the analysis of time series record analysis to output an estimated result. For example, daily journey, peak-hour journey and the loading between neighboring stations and so on, for the purposes of budget, operating management, system operation plan and the purchase of trains, can be effectively estimated. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。