查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 政黨偏好、制衡認知與分裂投票--2006年北高市長暨議員選舉的實證分析=Party Preference, Cognitive Madisonianism, and Split-Ticket Voting: The 2006 Taipei and Kaohsiung Mayoral and City Council Elections |
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作 者 | 吳重禮; | 書刊名 | 臺灣民主季刊 |
卷 期 | 5:2 2008.06[民97.06] |
頁 次 | 頁27-58 |
專 輯 | 2006年北高市長選舉 |
分類號 | 573.3 |
關鍵詞 | 分裂投票; 分立政府; 政黨偏好; 制衡認知; 市長施政滿意評價; Split-ticket voting; Divided government; Party preference; Cognitive madisonianism; Evaluation of mayoral performance; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 選民採取「分裂投票」(split-ticket voting)或者「一致投票」(straight-ticket voting)是造成「分立政府」(divided government)或者「一致政府」(unified government)極為關鍵的成因;至於影響選民分裂或一致投票的因素,研究文獻所提出的觀點並不盡相同。本文以2006年北高市長暨議員選舉為研究對象,探討分裂或一致投票的影響因素,尤其著重在「政黨偏好」和「制衡認知」的作用。作者擷取TEDS2006C面訪資料,藉由「雙變數交叉分析」DS2006C面訪資料,藉由「雙變數交叉分析」S2006C面訪資料,藉由「雙變數交叉分析」(cross-tabulation analyses)與「勝算對數模型」(logit models)進行檢證。實證資料顯示,年齡、省籍、市長施政滿意評價、政黨偏好是影響台北市選民分裂投票的重要因素,而省籍、教育程度、市長施政滿意評價、政黨偏好係左右高雄市選民投票的關鍵變數;至於以往經驗研究強調的制衡認知,在考量其他變數的效應之下,並無顯著影響。 |
英文摘要 | Split-ticket or straight-ticket voting by the electorate is an important cause of institutionally divided or unified government. Contending theories of voting behavior are by no means exhausted regarding the phenomenon of ticket-splitting. This work aims at investigating the causes of split-ticket and straight-ticket voting in the 2006 Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral and city councilor elections, and especially examines the effects of “party preference” and “cognitive Madisonianism.” In this article, I take advantage of “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2006 (TEDS2006C): Taipei and Kaohsiung Cities Mayoral Elections” survey data, employing the “cross-tabulation analyses” and “logit models” to test the associations between socio-demographic and psycho-political correlates of voter choices. The empirical results reveal that age, ethnicity, evaluation of mayoral performance, and party preference are significant variables of split-ticket voting in the Taipei elections, while the coefficients for the factors of ethnicity, education, evaluation of mayoral performance, and party preference are significant in those of Kaohsiung. However, the results also indicate that when other control variables are taken into account, the effects of cognitive Madisonianism become statistically insignificant, and such patterns are rather stable in both Taipei and Kaohsiung cities. In the conclusion, I review the major findings and limitations of this study. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。