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頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 盈餘管理、公司治理與財務預警模型之建構=Earnings Management, Corporate Governance, and the Construction of Financial Warning Models |
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作 者 | 許溪南; 歐陽豪; 陳慶芳; | 書刊名 | 金融風險管理季刊 |
卷 期 | 3:3 2007.09[民96.09] |
頁 次 | 頁1-40 |
分類號 | 553.977 |
關鍵詞 | 盈餘管理; 公司治理; 財務預警模型; 受試者作業特性曲線; Earnings management; Corporate governance; The financial early warning model; Receiver operating characteristic curve; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 傳統文獻上對於財務危機預警模型的建構,僅採用會計報表上之變數,本文旨在探討會計資訊、公司治理變數及盈餘管理指標對企業財務危機發生機率之預測能力。本研究財務危機的樣本為63家,財務正常公司的樣本為126家,樣本期間為1998年至2004年。本文分別建構七種財務預警模型,然後運用Logistic迴歸分析,探討會計資訊、公司治理變數及盈餘管理指標組成之各種模型對企業財務危機發生機率之預測能力。研究結果顯示,以AUC衡量指標而言,由會計資訊、公司治理及盈餘管理指標所建構的財務預警模型比其他模型具有最高的模型配適力與最佳的預測正確率,對財務危機預測正確機率分別為前一年為95.2%,前二年為84.1%,前三年為71.4%。本文的發現對於財務危機預警模型的建構,具有重的貢獻與啟示。 |
英文摘要 | In contrast to the traditional modeling of financial distress in the firm level using only accounting variables in financial statements, this paper uses accounting information, corporate governance variables, and earnings management index to construct models for business financial distress. A sample of 63 companies of financial distress and 126 healthy companies, during the period 1998-2004, for matching is used in the analysis. We construct 7 warning models for financial distress, and then use the logistic regression to examine the effects of accounting information, corporate governance variables, and earnings management index on the predictive power of financial distress. The results show that the financial early warning model constructed using accounting information, corporate governance variables and earnings management index has the highest fitness and predictive power of accuracy by using AUC measure index. The predicted probability of financial crisis for the distressed companies in the sample is 95.2%, 84.1% and 71.4% for one year, two years and three years before the financial distress, respectively. This finding has a substantial contribution to the financial warning modeling of corporate distress. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。