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題 名 | 多水庫系統最佳防洪放水規則之建立與應用--以淡水河流域為例=Development of Release Rules for Flood Control Operations on a Multi-Reservoir System--Case Study of Tanshui River Basin |
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作 者 | 徐年盛; 魏志強; | 書刊名 | 國立臺灣大學工程學刊 |
卷 期 | 96 2007.05[民96.05] |
頁 次 | 頁91-100 |
專 輯 | 環境工程專輯 |
分類號 | 443.96 |
關鍵詞 | 防洪; 放水規則; 決策樹; 水庫; Flood control; Release rules; Decision trees; Reservoir; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究之目的為建立一方法流程以供制定一多水庫系統最佳防洪放水規則 (決策樹),此規則可作為水庫在颱洪來臨時決定即時及預報放 水量之用。所建立之方法流程包括資料收集、資料庫建置、模式建立、最佳解解析、颱洪分類、規則萃取、規則驗證以及規則評比等。本研究 建立之兩模式中,多水庫系統防洪放水優選模式可產生決策樹資料礦掘演算模式所需輸入之最佳解資料,而決策樹資料礦掘法則用來萃取最佳 防洪放水規則(決策樹)。本研究之方法流程應用於淡水河流域,分別推求石門及翡翠兩水庫系統之最佳放水規則,並進行規則之驗證工作。 研究結果顯示,本研究所研發之最佳防洪放水規則可較現行放水規則提供一可靠的放水量在降低下游控制點最高水位及達到洪水後水庫蓄水目 標值。 |
英文摘要 | To provide the optimal real-time and forecast releases on a multi-reservoir system during typhoon, this study developed a set of optimal multi-reservoir operation rules for flood control. We propose the methodology to extract the decision trees (rules). The steps of the proposed methodology are: (1) collection of data, (2) building of typhoon databases, (3) development of the model of optimal flood control operation and the model of the decision-tree data-mining algorithm, (4) solution of optimal release patterns, (5) classification of training and testing data, (6) extraction of the decision trees, (7) verification and selection of the decision trees, and (8) comparison of the developed rules and the current rules. The decision-tree data-mining algorithm is used to generate the optimal decision trees. The developed methodology is applied to establish the optimal rules for the Shihmen and Feitsui reservoirs in the Tanshui River Basin. Results demonstrate that the solution using the developed decision trees are closer to the optimal than the current rules in terms of reducing the peak water table at the downstream control points and meeting the target reservoir storage at the end of flood. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。