查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 太陽光電市場之經驗曲線分析 |
---|---|
作 者 | 洪長春; | 書刊名 | 能源季刊 |
卷 期 | 36:3 民95.07 |
頁 次 | 頁105-136 |
分類號 | 448.167 |
關鍵詞 | 經驗曲線; 太陽光電產業; 基準情境; 價格投射; 損益平衡年; Experience curve; PV industry; Business as usual; Price projection; Break-even year; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 經驗曲線分析法不僅可做為未來價格投射(Price Projection)的情境分析,也可做為獲得成本競爭通所需學習投資的評估工作。利用現存的資料,經驗曲線法可提供一合理且系統化的方法來描述通的歷史發展及功效,近年來經驗曲線法已應用在能源產業發展分析上,包括各種能源技術的成本趨勢分析,再者此方法也可外插(Extrapolation)用於分析未來能源價格及新能源技術商品化的潛力。經驗曲線法也可以用於分析政策措施(Policy Measures)在新能源技術發展及商業化的影響。本研究將以經驗曲線法分析全球及各重要PV生產及裝置國家之經驗值(PR),在基準情境(Business as usual)下預測未來PV系統裝置成植、損益平衡年(Break-even Year)及學習投資額(Learning Investment),以德國DEU-S1PV發電廠(發電容量為0.5MW)為例,若折率定為5%,其損益平衝年約在2032年,學習投資額約為1,086.26 billion美元;而美國USA-S2PV發電廠(發電容量為5MW)分析結果,損益平衡年約在2019年,學習投資額約為2.66 billion美元,相對比較下,美國PV電力市場具有相當優勢的發展條件。 |
英文摘要 | Experience curves (ECs) is not only used for future price projection of scenario analysis, but is done also for obtaining cost of competitive technique needed estimate of learning investment. ECs could provide a series of reasonable and systematic method to describe the development of technique. ECs analysis had applied in energy industry recently, including all kinds of cost trend of energy technique. It could be used for analyzing the effect of policy measurement on the development of renewable energy for commercialization process. The article utilizes ECs method to analyse and calculate the progressive ratio (PR) of each PV production and/or installation country in the world. Under business as usual (BAU) conditions, ECs could predict the future of PV installation system cost, break-even year and learning investment. For Germany DEU-S1 PV power plant (electricity capacity 0.5 MW) as example, the break-even year of PV industry in USA about 2019 and US 2.66 billion in learning investment if the same discount rate. For comparison of both countries, the PV industry development of USA market will be superior to that of German market. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。