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題名 | 衛星資料反演之大氣溫溼度剖線在夏季午後對流前兆分析之應用=Prediction of the Summer Afternoon Convection Onset with MODIS and NOAA |
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作者 | 莊耀中; 劉振榮; 陳哲俊; | 書刊名 | 氣象預報與分析 |
卷期 | 188 民95.09 |
頁次 | 頁7-16 |
分類號 | 328.88 |
關鍵詞 | 午後對流; 大氣穩定指數; 輻散場; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 臺灣地區在夏季期間常有劇烈午後熱對流的發生,伴隨而來的雷雨往往造成航空和民生方面的困擾。由於午後熱對流發展迅速且常生成於臺灣四周海域,且傳統的觀測資料容易受到空間和時間的限制,因此衛星觀測資料之運用更顯得重要。本研究主要目的即在於利用TERRA及AQUA之MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer)和NOAA(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)衛星資料反演大氣溫濕垂直剖線將以應用於夏季午後熱對流發生之前兆分析。 併用MODIS和NOAA衛星資料時,首先要了解二組衛星資料是否具有一致性。本研究利用2003年1~10月衛星資料建立統計迴歸式以修正二組衛星資料間的差異,再用2002年9~12月衛星資料做為驗證。結果顯示溫度剖線的均方根誤差在1.5~2℃,露點剖線的均方根誤差在2~3℃,顯示這二組衛星資料具有一致性,再利用大氣溫濕垂直剖線估算大氣穩定指數K指數(K Index,KI)、總指數(Total Totals Index,TTI)和水氣含量等大氣熱力參數,並由地面測站資料計算輻散場代表以大氣動力參數,即可對夏季午後對流的發展進行分析。 本研究選取2003年6~9月的對流個案以建立各參數(大氣穩定指數、水氣含量和輻散場)門檻值,並選取2004和2005年6~9月對流個案做為驗證。結果顯示同時考慮此三項參數時,其2004與2005年整體準確率分別為76%與74%,隱含此方法有實用的價值。 |
英文摘要 | Intense convections often occur over the Taiwan area during the afternoons of summer, the following thunder often causes the puzzlement of aviation and people's livelihood. Because the afternoon convection rapidly develop and produce the sea area around Taiwan, the data observed by traditional methods are easy to limit by space and time. So the application of observing the materials of the satellite seems more important. The major purpose of this research is to apply a method for the MODIS and NOAA satellite data in retrieving temperature and dew point profiles, in order to apply to the omen analysis taking place in hot convection in afternoon of summer instead. While using MODIS and NOAA satellite data, should understand whether two groups of satellite data have consistency first. This research spends the satellite data in January to October of 2003 establishing regression equation to revise the difference among two groups of satellite data, and took September to December of 2002 certifying. The result shows that temperature profiles of the root mean square error are in 1.5~2 degrees Centigrade, dew point profiles of the root mean square error are in 2~3 degrees Centigrade. The root mean square error disparity of the temperature or the dew points between every layer is less than 1 degree Centigrade, to show that these two groups of satellite data have consistency. Then utilize the temperature and dew point profiles to estimate the atmosphere stabilize index of K index (K Index, KI)、total index (Total Totals Index, TTI) and the content of water vapor to stand for the atmosphere thermal parameters etc. And apply ground station data to calculate the diveregence field to show the atmospheric dynamics parameter, can be afternoon in summer correctly the development of the convection is analyzed. This research choose the convection case of June to September of 2003 in order to set up the threshold value of every parameter (atmosphere stability index, the content of water vapor and divergence field), and choose June to September of 2004 and 2005 the convection case in order to verify. The result show at the same time considering three parameters, 2004 and 2005 have the whole rate of accuracy will be 76 and 74 respectively, implying this method has practical value. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。