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題 名 | 未來氣候變遷趨勢對臺灣流域防洪系統整體性潛在衝擊影響及其調適策略之研究=Integrated Potential Impact of Flood Protection System Caused by Future Climate Change Scenario Simulated and Its Adaptation Strategy in Taiwan |
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作 者 | 謝龍生; 柳文成; 童慶斌; | 書刊名 | 聯合學報 |
卷 期 | 24 民93.06 |
頁 次 | 頁1-34 |
分類號 | 443.4 |
關鍵詞 | 氣候變遷; 防洪系統; 河川洪峰流量; 潛在衝擊; 調適策略; 不確定性; Climate change; Flood protection system; Flood discharge; Potential impact; Adaptation strategy; Uncertainty; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究之主要目的係評估未來短中長期各種可能氣候變遷情境條件下,全台重要河川洪峰流量對於集水區防洪系統之整體性衝擊影響。於研究過程中,北部選取大漢溪及新店溪、中南部選取鹽水溪流域、南部選取高屏溪及東部選取秀姑巒溪等代表性河川為研究區域,首先利用現況調查及觀測資料,進行流域降雨分析及建立適用於集水區之水文模式,並進一步整合氣候變遷分析於降雨潛勢分析及降低尺度之成果,以探討未來各種可能氣候變遷之預設情境對於研究區域重要控制點尖峰設計流量之變化趨勢,再進一步與過去水利主管單位所公告之河川尖峰設計流量及現有堤防防洪能力進行比較,以評估未來氣候變遷趨勢對台灣集水區防洪系統之整體性衝擊影響,再針對此整體性衝擊影響提出未來短中長期之調適策略,將可作為權屬機關擬定因應對策之參考依據。研究結果顯示,不論是以平衡試驗氣候變遷預設情境,或是在SRES 氣候變遷預設情境下,其各區域主要河川流域最大保護標準洪峰流量皆將有增加之趨勢;針對因氣候變遷所引致河川洪水增加量對流域現有防洪系統之衝擊影響,本研究進一步從現有堤防防洪能力、法規設計標準及災害管理系統等方面進行探討,提出具體之潛在衝擊影響,進一步針對此潛在衝擊影響提出短、中、長期之及其調適策略。對於短期調適策略,主要是以改善工程技術策略能發揮立即強化效用為主;中期主要是以法規修訂或是管理制度面為主;長期主要是以長期性工作或防洪願景為主。惟氣候變遷影響評估具有相當高之不確定性,因此在應用上,建議採用多個GCM 氣候變遷模式預測情境之趨勢分析,而預測變化量之參考價值相對較低,不宜直接應用於決策。 |
英文摘要 | The purpose of this study is to assess the integrated potential impact on flood protection system of Taiwan watersheds by flood discharge under various scenarios of short, mid, and long-term climate changes. The Da-Ham Stream and Shih-Dan Stream in the north, Yan Shui Stream in the middle-south, Kao Ping Stream in the south and Hsin Lu Luan Stream in the east were chosen as the study areas. The observed data of the selected areas such as precipitation and discharge data were collected to analyze rainfall frequency and to set up the suitable hydrology model. The results of climate change scenario simulations such as precipitation potential and downscaling were integrated to estimate the possible flood discharges at important control points of river systems by the hydrology model. The simulated discharges were compared with the design discharges of the Water Conservancy Department to evaluate the defense ability of the present flood control system and the potential impact on the watershed. The result shows that the flood discharge for the river systems of Taiwan will possess a rising trend under both the balance test and SRES simulation scenarios for short, mid, and long-term climate changes. For the increasing flood in the future, this study derives the potential impacts from three aspects including present flood protection ability, laws and regulations for design standard, and hazard management system. To mitigate the potential impacts, we propose the strategy for short, mid, and long-term changes. The suggestion for the short-term is to improve the engineering facilities of flood protection system. For the medium-term suggestion, the revision of laws and regulations is proposed. For the long-term, establishing the prefect flood protection system is the major work. Due to the high uncertainty in climate change impact assessment, we suggest that several GCM should be adopted to predict the tendency instead of quantifying the values. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。