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題 名 | 工業生產效率與出口導向貿易政策分析:以臺灣與中國大陸為例=An Analysis of Industrial Production Efficiency and ELG Trade Policies: The Cases of Taiwan and Mainland China |
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作 者 | 練有為; 張杞楠; | 書刊名 | 經社法制論叢 |
卷 期 | 36 民94.07 |
頁 次 | 頁155-198 |
分類號 | 555.1 |
關鍵詞 | Malmquist生產力指數; 隨機邊界模型; Granger因果檢定; 出口導向成長假說; 總要素生產力成長假說; Malmquist productivity index; Stochastic frontier model; Granger causality test; Export-led growth hypothesis; Total factor productivity growth hypothesis; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 經濟成長文獻對有關各國經濟成長歧異之原因存有重大爭議,資料顯示生產力與出口成長係同步變動,這就衍生出兩派不同論點之假說,亦即:(1)出口導向成長(ELG)之假說,和主張生產力的增加會造成貿易增加的(2)貿易的技術理論。另一個重大爭議即在於東亞經濟發展的原因,一派為World Bank (1993)、Freeman (1995)和Nelson and Pack (1999)提出的工業化國家的總合要素生產力成長(TFPG)假說,另一派為 Krugman (1994)和Young (1994,1995)等人提出之資本累積乃東亞經濟成長動力之假說。本研究即在於探討兩岸25年來的經貿來往,是否對我國之工業發展產生符合TFPG 和ELG假說之條件,並藉以透視當前兩岸經貿政策。 採用的方法即將臺灣與中國大陸工業生產資料以隨機邊界模型和Malmquist生產力指數加以估計,驗證兩岸工業成長之原動力,然後再運用Granger因果檢定加以測試,以確認兩岸貿易與生產效率間是否具有因果關係。 實證結果發現:相對於中國大陸,我國之工業發展有別於Krugman (1994) 和Young (1994,1995)所稱之NICs四小龍沒有技術進步支持其高速成長,亦有別於World Bank (1993)、Freeman (1995)、Nelson and Pack (1999)支持的所謂新興工業化國家四小龍具有生產力推動成長之特點;兩種模型皆證實兩岸工業之生產力指數呈現成長狀態,並透過Malmquist生產力指數可分解的特性,證實臺灣之工業技術進步實亦只侷限於要素投入偏向之生產力之增加所致。此外,中國大陸生產力表現較佳,主要是初期(1978-1990)大陸之技術變化量指數明顯優於臺灣,後期(1991-2002)則為要素投入偏向技術變化指數較大所致。同時,根據包括誤差修正項之Granger因果檢定的實證結果亦發現:兩岸貿易有助於大陸地區工業生產效率之提昇,惟對我國之工業發展則具長期的因果關係,但不具短期的因果關係。雖然ELG之假說無法在本研究中被確認,但我國採行供給面的策略,將可提高生產力,進而擴大對大陸的出口。 |
英文摘要 | An important debate in economic growth theory literature concerns the causes of the wide differences in growth rates between countries. Data shows comovements between productivity and export growth. This give rise to two opposing hypothesis: (1) the export-led growth hypothesis and (2) the technology theories of trade which suggests that improved productivity give rise to increases in trade. Another important debate about eonomic development in Asian economies: (1) the TFPG hypothesis for the newly industrializing countries, proposed by the World Bank (1993), Freeman (1995) and Nelson & Pack (1999); (2) growths in these countries are hypothesized to be caused by capital accumulation, see Krugman (1994), Young (1994, 1995). In this paper, we investigated the TFPG (Total Factor Productivity Growth) hypothesis and ELG (Export-Led Growth) hypothesis for Taiwan and mainland China. For this purpose, we estimated the newly developed Lovell (2003) Malmquist productivity indices and stochastic frontier model for the period between 1978 and 2002. And then we adopted Engle and Granger (1987) vector error correction model (VECM) to detect the relationship between production efficiency and cross-strait trade. Our results indicate that the patterns of economic development in Taiwan are different from the arguments in favor of the TFPG hypothesis but are also different from the arguments which are against these hypotheses, as given by Krugman (1994), and Young (1994, 1995). We find that the estimate of Malmquist productivity indices and stochastic frontier model for both Taiwan and China show evidence of growth. Given that we investigated the different decompositions of the Malmquist productivity indices, our model is able to show that Taiwan's productivity growth comes, essentially, from the input bias of technical changes. On the other hand, the growth in mainland China which outperform those of Taiwan. is more due to the magnitude of technical changes (1978-1990) and the input bias of technical changes (1991-2002). Furthermore, according to the test of VECM we found in Taiwan for the long run that the cross-strait trade will improve the efficiency of industrial production and in China for both the short and long run. Although the ELG hypothesis could not be confirmed by our limited data of cross-strait trade, we verified that Taiwan could adopt supply side methods to improve the productivity so that the export to mainland China can be expended. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。