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題 名 | 臺灣地區颱風侵臺期間測站風速之簡單統計預測=Wind Speed Forecasts over the Taiwan Area during the Invasion of Typhoon by Using the Simple Statistical Method |
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作 者 | 葉天降; 謝信良; 吳石吉; | 書刊名 | 氣象學報 |
卷 期 | 44:2 2002.06[民91.06] |
頁 次 | 頁1-16 |
分類號 | 328.55 |
關鍵詞 | 颱風; 風速預測; 統計方法; Typhoon; Wind speed forecast; Statistical method; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 尤特颱風(Utor)是民國九十年北太平洋西部生成的第四個颱風(0104),也是中央氣象局九十年發布的第三個颱風警報的颱風。尤特颱風形成後即向西北偏西北西方向快速移動,僅在通過呂宋島北方近海(巴上海峽南部)時,方向更偏西,速度也梢有減慢。尤特颱風的暴風圈甚廣,暴風半徑達350公里,惟中心未登陸,僅共暴風邊緣掃過嘉義以南地區。尤特颱風之中央氣象局24小時預報位置誤差為179公里,48小時碩報位置誤差則為331公里。由於尤特颱風外圍環流及地形影響,造成東部山區降雨超過430公釐,平地最大雨量則有165公釐。東部地區災情較嚴重,統計有一人死亡、六人失蹤,農牧損失八千餘萬,並有一艘漁船沈沒。 測,其分辨6級以上風速之準確率皆相當低。對一段時間內測站可能發生最大風速之預測,其預測結果較對定時之風速預測準確度稍微提高,但平均法與持續法皆仍未能有效避免延時為24小時預測誤差之成長。我們引用修正之差異持續法則能對臺北、臺南與花蓮24小時內最大風速預測之相關係數提高為0.56、0.50與054,對分辨6/7級風速之ETS(Equitable Threat Score)值也可提升為0.25/0.21、0.16/0.16與0.26/0.19,其中對西行類颱風24小時內最大風速預測結果之相關係數為0.60、0.54與0.58,對分辨6/7級風速之ETS值為0.27/0.28、0.23/0.22與0.30/0.22,有供作業應用參考之價值。 |
英文摘要 | Typhoon 0104(Utor), the 4th typhoon in the northwest Pacific Ocean, was the third one to affect Taiwan in 2001. Forming over the sea east of the Philippine islands, Typhoon 0104 tracked northwestward to westnorthwestward with the maximum speed of 33 km/hr. But it slowed down a little bit and moved more westward while passing through the sea north of Luzon. Although the circulation center did not landed, the radius of typhoon 0104 was up to 350km, therefore the edge of typhoon 0104 still affected southern part of Taiwan. Typhoon 0104 brought torrential rains in eastern part of Taiwan, especially in the mountain area. The amount of precipitation was over 430mm. Reports indicated one people was killed and six wounded. Damage to agriculture was about US $2.5 million. The 24-hour mean forecast error was 179 kin. , the wind speed forecast errors are larger for the northward moving typhoons than for the westward moving typhoons. And, the Climatology Average forecasts provide basic guidance for the time the larger wind speed maybe occurs. However, the average field of wind speeds and the average field of rainfall are not resembled to each other. The strong winds may not occur simultaneously with the heavy rainfall. The wind speeds persisted generally longer than the rainfall. Our evaluations also show that for the wind speed forecast of time lag greater than 12 hours the skill for distinguishing strong wind events from weak wind events is very low no matter which method has been used. But the forecast skills can be improved for forecasting the maximum wind speeds of a given time interval. For example, the correlation coefficients between the observations and the 24-hour maximum wind speed forecasts of the modified Deviation Persistence Method are improved to 0.56, 0.50 and 0.54, and the equitable threat score at threshold of wind speed scale-6/7 are 0.25/0.21, 0.16/0.16 and 0.26/0.19 for Taipei, Tainan and Hualian, respectively. For westward moving typhoons, those values are even larger as correlation coefficients are 0.60, 0.54 and 0.58, and the ETS scores are 0.27/0.28, 0.23/0.22 and 0.30/0.22. It shows that the maximum wind speed forecasts of the modified Deviation Persistence Method are useful information in operations. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。