頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 負面競選對2002年高雄市選情影響的探討=The Impact of Negative Campaigning in 2002 Kaohsiung City Elections |
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作 者 | 王鼎銘; | 書刊名 | 東吳政治學報 |
卷 期 | 20 民94.03 |
頁 次 | 頁83-114 |
分類號 | 572.35 |
關鍵詞 | 負面競選; 反動員效果; 刺激效果; Negative campaigning; Demobilization effect; Stimulation effect; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文根據Ansolabehere et al.(1994)等人所提出「反動員效果」(demobilization effect)的理論為基礎,探討高雄市選民在2002年市長及市議員選舉過程中,受新瑞都及硫酸錏兩弊案的負面消息的影響究竟有多大。透過台灣選舉與民主化調查(TEDS 2002)所提供的民調資料,本文基本上有五點發現:第一,選民受到候選人負面消息的影響越深,越不可能支持當事人;第二,選民受負面競選的影響越深,除了會影響支持當事人的意願之外,還有可能因為對負面選舉文化的失望,而不願意去參予投票;第三,尋求連任的謝長廷市長因新瑞都案所流失的選票,遠高於硫酸錏案之於黃俊英;第四,獨立選民比起具政黨認同的選民,更容易受負面競選的影響而不去投票;最後,本文也發現市長候選人的負面弊案形象同樣會對同黨市議員的選情產生不利的影響,但是並不若對市長本身的影響來得大。 |
英文摘要 | This paper, based on the demobilization theory proposed by Ansolabehere et al. (1994), discusses and examines the impact of negative campaigning on the voting behavior in 2002 Kaohsiung City mayor election. From the survey data collected by the Taiwan Election and Democratization Studies (TEDS 2002), this paper concludes with five observations: first, the voters are less likely to support the candidate who are attacked by the negative information; second, when the voters encounter more negative information about the election, they are more likely to abstain from the election; third, for the influence of negative campaigning, the incumbent suffers more vote lost than the challenger; fourth, independent voters, comparing to those with specific party identification, are more likely to be influenced by the negative campaigning; finally, the candidates running for city council members will also be effected by the negative information of the mayor candidate from the same party. However, this destructive influence on the vote share is not so profoundly as the mayor election itself. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。