頁籤選單縮合
| 題名 | 民進黨執政以來中國對臺政策的鬆緊變化=The Cyclical Change of Chinese Taiwan Policy Since 2000 |
|---|---|
| 作者 | 顏建發; Yan, Jiann-fa; |
| 期刊 | 臺灣國際研究季刊 |
| 出版日期 | 20050900 |
| 卷期 | 1:3 民94.秋 |
| 頁次 | 頁147-175 |
| 分類號 | 573.07 |
| 語文 | chi |
| 關鍵詞 | 一個中國原則; 兩岸關係; 蘿蔔與棒; 反分裂法; 連宋登陸; One China Principle; Cross-strait relations; Stick-and-carrot; Anti-secession law; |
| 中文摘要 | 在兩岸關係的發展上，中國一直是個具支配性與決定性的因素。2000 年 3 月 18 日與 2004 年 3 月 20 日陳水扁總統在總統大選的勝出標誌著中國對台新鬥 爭的一個新階段的開始。在此劇情中，主要的行動者包括北京、泛藍、泛綠與美 國都高度地入戲。由於意識型態與利益的差異，諸多行動者之間所構築的關係網 不僅複雜，而且隨時處於高度的變遷。本文試圖勾畫出北京在調適新的政治現實 的過程，其對台政策所呈顯的不變與變。無論如何，北京勢將持續其蘿蔔與棒的 軟硬兩手策略。兩岸關係的模式乃無可避免地朝向時收時放的變動循環。近來， 胡錦濤政府通過所謂的「反分裂法」以及連宋登陸的後續效應已產生了兩岸政治 生態的潛在變遷。即便根本上兩岸關係仍沒有大的變化，但心理上的轉變卻不可 謂不大，並且對於台灣內部的團結與共識的形成產生了傷害。連宋登陸有利於向 「一個中國」傾斜的政治生態。不變的現狀正面臨強大的挑戰而可能產生變動。 此一新的發展已使得泛綠與包括美國在內的周邊國家的混淆與不安。兩岸關係變 得脆弱與不定。新的風險浮現。值此之際，如何穩定兩岸關係是當務之急。假如 和平與繁榮的現狀仍是此一區域所企求者，那麼，兩岸之間務實與建設性的對話與交流管道仍是非常需要的。 |
| 英文摘要 | This article attempts to depict the continuities and discontinuities of Beijing’s Taiwan policy while Beijing is accommodating itself to the changing political realities around the Taiwan Strait. Basically, Beijing’s one China principle has never changed but the contents of its policy and the measures adopted toward Taiwan have undergone many changes due to the new emerging realities. Nevertheless, Beijing will continue using its stick-and-carrot tactics to dominate cross-strait relations. Beijing will sometimes draw the reins and sometimes throw the reins to Taiwan. The pattern of cross-strait relations will be unavoidably fluctuating and tend to be cyclical. Recently, the so-called “Anti-secession Law” recently enacted by the Hu Jin-tao government and the subsequent visits of Lien Chan and James Soong on China have caused a potential politico-ecological change across the Taiwan Strait. Even though there has been no major change in the status quo across the Strait yet, psychological shifts are occurring, discouraging solidarity and consensus inside Taiwan. The recent visits of Lien and Soong may favor a politico-ecological tilted toward the “One China” direction. The status quo is in face of strong challenges and will be forced to change. This new tendency has confused and worried not only the Pan-Green camp but also neighboring countries, including the U.S. The cross-strait relationship has become fragile and unstable. If peaceful and prosperous status quo is desirable in this region, a pragmatic and constructive mode of thinking and permanent channels for dialogues or exchanges will be much more needed across the Taiwan Strait. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。