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題 名 | 建築物火災期望損失機率型推估之回顧=Review of Probabilistic Estimations on Fire Loss Expectations for Buildings |
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作 者 | 林元祥; 林志信; | 書刊名 | 中央警察大學災害防救學報 |
卷 期 | 6 民94.12 |
頁 次 | 頁43-68 |
分類號 | 575.872 |
關鍵詞 | 機率型推估; 火災損失; 使用年限; 結構失敗; Probabilistic estimation; Fire loss; Designed-life; Structural failure; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文的主要重點在回顧建築物火災期望損失機率型之推估,這種火災損失係以金錢來表示。首先假設建築物火災發生之機率服從(符合)卜瓦松機率分配,然後再考慮火勢蔓延與結構是否損壞等情形去推估可能造成的損失,可以說是在假設性火災發生下進行的理論推導。這些推導分析主要係以建築物火災發生率、建築物面積、建築物使用時間、建築物設計使用年限、防火安全設施費用、建築物防護及搶救條件下、火災發生時之蔓延時情形及建築物結構損壞情況、災後之修復情形與否投保火險等為測量變項或考量因素,對建築物火災物財務的損失提出一些預測的方法。此外也考量建築物型態及不同防護對策下所造成的損失。 |
英文摘要 | The major objective of this study is to review probabilistic estimations on fire loss expectations for building fires in terms of monetary. It is assumed that fire occurrence follow the Poisson probability distribution and then whether fire spread or structural failure or not are considered in order to estimate the probable property losses. It is also called theoretical estimations under hypothetical fire situation. Based on fire ignition rate, building floor area, building designed life safety measures, various fire protections and fire fighting situations, situations of fire spread and structural failure, situations of recovery and maintenance post fires and fire insurance, etc, many predictive approaches regarding fire loss expectations are performed. In addition, loss estimations under different building occupancies and various fire protection strategies are also considered. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。