頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | India's Trade Policy a Hostage of Ghosts Past=深受過去經發策略拖累的印度出口表現 |
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作 者 | Agarwal, Manmohan; Sengupta, Dipankar; | 書刊名 | WTO研究 |
卷 期 | 2 民94 |
頁 次 | 頁95-127 |
分類號 | 558.1 |
關鍵詞 | 印度; 中國; 印度出口; 尼赫魯; 馬哈拉諾比斯; India; China; Indian export; Services; Nehru-Mahalanobis Model; |
語 文 | 英文(English) |
中文摘要 | 本文主旨在檢驗印度從封閉而管理嚴密的經濟到以出口為導向的市場經濟的演進過程,尤其集中在探討其獨立以來之貿易政策,剖析其貿易政策變遷之背景,並點出其延續與變化之所在。 作者認為今日印度的貿易政策仍深受過去尼赫魯(Nehru)與馬哈拉諾比斯(Mahalanobis)經濟發展策略之影響。尼馬(NM)經發模式強調在相當封閉的經濟體制下透過工業化追求自給自足的經濟成長。在他們眼裡,出口的唯一功能是為了支付進口。此一發展模式植基於高成本的經濟基礎之上,嚴重阻礙出口之發展。而由於此一經發模式的失敗導致印度必須開放經濟。儘管如此,此一模式本身以及其缺點時而迫使印度政府採取一些不利出口努力的措施。而這些措施的實施卻意外地創造出印度經發擘劃者所始料未及的有利資訊工業(IT )繁榮的機構。 不過,目前印度的出口卻出現瓶頸,若不根除這些殘存的不利因素,並投資基礎架構,否則出口成長將無法持續。但是,因為這些政策措施所衍生出來的既得利益使改革困難。結果,雖然改革的需要剛一開始極為明顯,但是在許多情況下改革被迫拖延至最後關頭。紡織業和成衣業就是最佳的例子。基礎設施亟需投資但是政府此刻卻無能為力。80年代起的財政動蕩導致資本密集高的產業被迫改革、「企業化」並隨後接受市場的考驗。然而, 若是以政府在權力改革推行的速度和結果不確定性來作為將來改革的標準,印度要成功地推動出口仍將極受限制。 |
英文摘要 | It is commonly held that the year 1991 marks the turn-around in India’s policy making; from that year India finally broke with the dirigiste Nehru-Mahalanobis economic model and gave the market the pride of place in economic decision-making. It also marks the era where a relatively closed economy that had viewed international trade sceptically, embraced the concept of export-led growth enthusiastically. Although the above is not entirely false it masks the fact that Indian planning had been slowly but surely relaxing the stranglehold of the state over economic decision-making throughout the eighties. In similar vein the policy-makers had also been promoting exports for quite sometime even before the final decisive break of 1991 . This paper examines the evolution of India from a closed tightly regulated economy pursuing a policy of self-sufficient growth through industrialisation, into an economy that that is clearly evolving into market driven economy where the primary impulse of growth is arguably external in nature, driven by export demand. It seeks to examine India’s trade policies since independence to explain continuity and change in such policies as they have evolved. The contention of this paper is the following: India’s Trade policies are hostage to circumstances created by policies followed during the `plan period’, i.e. the Nehru-Mahalanobis (NM) strategy. We will argue that although the Nehru-Mahalanobis model envisaged industrial growth within the confines of a relatively closed economy (where the sole role of exports were to pay for its imports), it paradoxically contained the seeds of its dissolution as well as one that would lead to a policy of export promotion. At the same time N-M model inhibited export promotion by laying foundations of a high cost economy. Although India discarded the NM and de facto went in for export-led growth, the NM’s final bequest to India’s trade policy would be features that limit the manoeuvring space of Indian exporters even in the face the constraints they actually face. We will conclude with policy prescriptions that seek to enhance India’s export performance given opportunities that are likely to arise in the future, the constraints that India faces and the competition that awaits it in the future. This paper is divided into the following sections. In the first section we discuss the Import Substituting Industrialisation (ISI) policies followed by the government, rationale for such a policy, instruments that were used to implement such policies as well as the impact of such policies. In the second section we discuss the trade policy adopted by the State. In the third section we talk about the developments in the economy and its impact on policy-making including trade policy. In the fourth section we talk about the policies pursued in the eighties, their unsustainability and the consequent BOP crisis of 1991. In the last section we talk of the reforms that have followed, their initial successes and tapering off and the reasons for the slowing of the economy and how these are related the policies of the fifties. We also discuss the appropriate policy changes that are required if India’s trade performance is to pick up and regain the growth rate it exhibited during its initial spurt immediately after reforms. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。