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題名 | 統計與落點分析:大學指考選填志願的輔助利器=Statistical Forcasting after the College Entrance Examination |
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作者 | 任眉眉; 陳日昇; 詹嘉豪; | 書刊名 | 中國統計學報 |
卷期 | 43:2 2005.06[民94.06] |
頁次 | 頁165-181 |
分類號 | 419.52 |
關鍵詞 | 最低錄取加權總分; 最低錄取加權平均分數; 落點分析; 相關係數; 簡單線性迴歸; Weighted score; Simple linear regression; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 大學指定考試分發入學前,考生需繳交志願卡,因應如何在一千多個校系中,選出自己喜歡而且上榜機會大的100個科系的問題,電腦落點分析遂成爲考生選塡志願的重要輔助工具。坊間的落點分析均建立在前提假設「前後兩年學生對校系基礎評價不變」上,本研究首次以統計理論探討該假設是否成立,並應用九十二和九十三學年度,聯合分發會公佈各校系最低錄取加權總分資料,進行實際驗證。在前提假設成立,文中也應用連續兩年度大考中心發佈的,各單一考科考生成績累計表和各校系之指考科目與加權方法,以及前一學年度各校系最低錄取加權總分等資料,應用統計理論與分析,建立一個落點預測的模式。並據此寫成一套有效的電腦落點分析軟體,置於網頁上,提供考生免費下載使用。 |
英文摘要 | After the important College Entrance Examination, a senior high school student has to select at most 100 of 1600 departments for advance study. Since the weight of counting the scores of nine individual examinations is determined by each department, which varies year by year, the problem of selection and priority of certain departments becomes a big trouble to students and parents yearly. In this paper, following statistical concepts and analysis, we build up an index for each student to represent the possibility of entering any interested department. A real data are applied to check the efficiency of our index. Based on this index, a software is written and offered on website for free download. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。