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題 名 | 遊覽車需求推估與預測模式之研究=A Study on Estimating and Forecasting Models for Tour Bus Demand |
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作 者 | 李堯賢; 張靖; | 書刊名 | 中華管理學報 |
卷 期 | 1:1 2000.03[民89.03] |
頁 次 | 頁69-87 |
分類號 | 557.82 |
關鍵詞 | 遊覽車; 需求預測; 計量經濟模式; Tour bus; Demand forecasting; Econometric model; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究利用遊覽車需求特性建立一需求推估方法,分析結果顯示,遊覽車之需求自民國78年以來皆呈現成長趨勢,在民國80年遊覽車牌照開放當時,確實存在供不應求現象,但隨著遊覽車供給數的與日俱增,自民國86年起該市場已呈現供過於求。另本研究利用計量經濟方法所構建之遊覽車需求預測模式顯示,遊覽車需求量將持續增加,但成長率已由87年的9.90%降至90年的3.28%,顯見其需求成長已漸趨緩和。因此,若單純考慮遊覽車之供需市場,目前遊覽車牌照管制政策應朝向合理化之管制方式。 |
英文摘要 | We use the demand characteristics of tour bus to establish a demand estimation method. The analysis result of the method indicates that the demand of tour bus has been experienced a steadily growth since 1987. In 1991 the tour bus market occurred supply shortage, however, the market situation reverses since 1997. In addition, our forecasting model says that the demand quantity of tour bus has decreased from 9.9% in 1998 to 3.28% in 2001. This finding shows that the growth rate of tour bus demand has tended to grow in a decreasing rate. Therefore, the data of demand and supply of tour bus suggests that the regulation policy of tour bus license should emphasis in strictly quantity control. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。