頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 銀行發展、股市發展與經濟成長--臺灣的實證研究=Banking Development, Stock Market Development, and Economic Growth: The Case of Taiwan |
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作 者 | 李建強; | 書刊名 | 臺灣經濟預測與政策 |
卷 期 | 35:2 2005.03[民94.03] |
頁 次 | 頁79-105 |
分類號 | 562.1 |
關鍵詞 | 銀行發展; 股市發展; 經濟成長; 長期因果關係; Banking development; Stock market development; Economic growth; Long-run causality; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 以往探討我國金融發展與經濟成長的文獻,大多僅著重銀行的個別功能,而忽略銀行與股市的互動關係,此外也遺漏金融變數可能存有內生性的問題。本文針對上述兩項特點,以共積模型探討我國銀行發展、股市發展與經濟成長的長期關係及因果關係,並檢測銀行及股市之間究竟為替代抑或互補關係?實證結果顯示銀行發展變數具有弱外生的特性;銀行發展單向降低股市發展,顯示兩者為替代關係。此外,由長期因果關係檢定可知,我國同時存在供給領導(supply-leading)及需求追隨(demand-following)的股市發展型態,而銀行則為供給領導的發展型態。我們將上述實證結果與現有文獻做一比較。 |
英文摘要 | The paper investigates the long-run relationship between banking development, stock market development, and economic growth using Taiwan's data. A multivariate time-series model is employed to test for cointegration and causal relationship between variables that proxy for above. Cointegration and weak exogeneity tests show the following results: (1) banking development and stock market development significantly promote economic growth; (2) proxy for banking development is weakly exogenous for both stock market development and growth; (3) banking development and stock market development are substitute sources for capital borrowing and leading; (4) banking development causes growth which validates supply-leading hypothesis; and (5) the bidirectional causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth supports both supply-leading and demand-following hypothesis. We also compare the empirical results with related literature. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。