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題 名 | 大氣溫室氣體加倍對臺灣區域氣候之衝擊=The Impacts of Doubled Greenhouse Gases on the Regional Climate and Water Resource over Taiwan |
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作 者 | 吳明進; 李清縢; 陳世欽; | 書刊名 | 環境保護 |
卷 期 | 27:1 2004.06[民93.06] |
頁 次 | 頁121-135 |
分類號 | 328.84 |
關鍵詞 | 全球變遷; 區域氣候; 全球模式; 區域氣候; Global climate change; Water resources; Regional climate model; Hydrological model; Stream flow; Ground water refill; Irrigation demand; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文藉由數值模擬探討全球溫室效應氣體加倍對台灣區域氣候之影響。首先使用NCAR-CCM3全球氣候模式作目前二氧化碳濃度和二氧化碳濃度倍增情境下之全球氣候模擬,其次截取東亞部分之全球模式輸出輸入NCEP-RSM-96V區域氣候模式作不同解析度東亞及台灣區域氣候之降尺度模擬。完成了兩種溫室氣體情境各十年、春夏秋冬各四季、三種不同解析度RSM的模擬。三種解析度為280km×280km(RSM0和CCM3解析度相同),50 km×50km(RSM1)和15km×15km(RSM2)。作RSM0模擬的目的是作為高解析度區域氣候模式的比較基準,以移除CCM3和RSM0之模式物理差異效應。此CCM3/RSM96V模式系統模擬的結果顯示一、CCM3和RSM0間仍有明顯差異,反應不同模式物理對全球氣候模式的影響。RSM模擬傾向於東亞有較多降水。二、台灣區域降水季節和地理分佈的特徵可被RSM巢結於CCM3的模擬中被相當忠實突顯出來。三、雖然低解析度模式預測未來台灣地區氣溫升高且降水增加,高解析度模式也預測台灣地區氣溫升高,但增加的幅度有季節和空間分佈的差異。高解析度模式預測降水的變化有時空上的差異,部分地區和季節可能反而減少。在二氧化碳加倍後,冬季降水顯著增加,伴隨南部海岸背風面,地面溫度顯著升高。 |
英文摘要 | It is to investigate the impacts of doubled greenhouse gases on the regional climate of Taiwan through numerical model simulation. At first, NCAR-CCM3 global climate model is applied to simulate global climate model current CO2concentration and 2X CO2 scenarios. Then, part of these output from the global simulation were input to NCEP-RSM-96V regional climate model to do the regional climate of East Asia and Taiwan down-scale simulation with various resolutions. Simulations of each ten perpetual spring、summer、fall, and winter, under two different greenhouse gas scenario s were run for three different resolutions. These three different resolutions are 280 km×280 km (RSM0, same resolution as CCM3), 50 km×50 km (RSM1), and 15 km×15 km (RSM2), RSM0 was run as a comparison basis to remove climate model effects between CCM3 and RSM. The results from the simulation with CCM3/RSM96V model system indicate 1. Noticeable differences between CCM3 and RSM0 simulations appeared, indicating the mismatched of the model physics. More precipitation over East Asia simulated with RSM. 2. Seasonally and geo graphically dependent precipitation patterns over Taiwan area were reasonably enhanced by RSM from the imposed CCM3 simulations. 3. While low-resolution models predict that temperature and precipitation will increase over Taiwan area, high-resolution models predict that temperature will increase too. The amplitude of the increase showed significant temporal and spatial patterns. High-resolution models predicted that precipitation would vary in spatial and temporal. Precipitation even became less for some areas and seasons. Precipitation over northeastern Taiwan in winter will increase significantly after CO2 doubled accompanying with temperature increase significantly over southwestern coast area. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。