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題 名 | 臺灣電子業上市公司財務危機預警模式建構--分析層級程序法與Logit迴歸模型之比較=Construction of Financial Distress Prediction Model for Listed Companies of Electronic Industry in Taiwan--The Comparison on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Logistic Regression Model |
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作 者 | 林郁翎; 徐霈; | 書刊名 | 中小企業發展季刊 |
卷 期 | 20 2011.06[民100.06] |
頁 次 | 頁23-56 |
分類號 | 494.7 |
關鍵詞 | 分析層級程序法; Logit迴歸模型; 財務危機預警模式; Analytic hierarchy process; Logistic regression model; Financial distress prediction model; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 摘 要 本文利用分析層級程序法及Logit迴歸模型,以台灣電子業上市公司為主要研究對 象進行企業財務危機預警模式之建構,並利用Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS)、Area under the Curve (AUC)等兩種預測效力評估指標檢視兩模型之預測效果。實證結果發現, AHP模型的KS值為0.56,AUC值為0.64;Logit迴歸模型的KS值為0.68,AUC值為 0.816。故整體而言,AHP模型與Logit迴歸模型均有一定的區別能力,但Logit迴歸模 型的區別能力又優於AHP法。 |
英文摘要 | Abstract In this study we use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Logistic regression to construct financial distress prediction models for listed companies of electronic industry in Taiwan. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Area under the Curve are used to investigate the default prediction performance of the two financial distress prediction models. The KS value of the AHP model we get is 0.56 and the AUC is 0.64 while the KS value of the Logistic regression model is 0.68 and the AUC value is 0.816. As a whole, both AHP and Logistic regression models are able to discriminate the distressful companies from the normal ones, and the Logistic regression model exhibits better performance than the AHP model. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。