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題 名 | 基於灰色理論之短期銷售預測方法=The Short-term Sale Forecasting Based on Grey Theory |
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作 者 | 錢炳全; 李順益; 王學亮; | 書刊名 | 資訊管理展望 |
卷 期 | 5:1 2003.03[民92.03] |
頁 次 | 頁1-17 |
分類號 | 494.5 |
關鍵詞 | 客戶關係管理; 灰色理論; 灰預測; 銷售預測; Customer relationship management; CRM; Grey theory; Grey prediction; Sale forecasting; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 商業交易所獲得的利潤,是維繫公司永續經營的最大要素。產業界為獲取較高的利 潤,客戶訂單預測是現代企業資源規劃系統及供應鏈管理系統中與客戶維持一定良好的 關係的一項重要任務。目前產業界通常使用統計預測方法,來事先規劃長程的產能擴充 計畫及短程的生產計畫,希望能使得客戶訂單在交期準確性上,得到一個較令人滿意的 結果。但傳統的預測方法需要大量的歷史資料,才能使得預測值有一定的準確性。但現 今科技的進步使得消費性產品的生命週期越來越短,企業在利用傳統的預測方法做短期 銷售預測時,往往尚未收集足夠的觀察值,該產品便已從市場上消失。因此本研究就是 利用灰色理論中灰預測的簡易、少數據之特性,來設計一套包含二個灰預測模式來達成 有效的短期預測架構。實驗結果顯示,我們所提出的方法可以在短期預測上得到較準確 的結果,並且比以往的方法更加穩定與簡單。 |
英文摘要 | The main purpose of business is to make money. For maintaining a good relationship with customers and maximizing the productivity of the company, sale forecasting is an important task in most of the ERP and SCM systems. The traditional sale forecasting uses the techniques of prediction based on statistical theory, which need large amount of historical data. However, the life cycle of commercial products are shorter than before. Even a product has disappeared before the enough data for sale are collected to support forecasting. This paper proposes new methods for short-term sale forecasting based on Grey prediction theory. We design two Grey prediction models to complete the task of short-term sale forecasting. The experiments show that the proposed methods have better accuracy in short-term prediction. Besides, the new methods provide a stable and simple model for prediction in comparison with the previous methods relatively. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。