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題 名 | 以貨櫃港埠業角度探討與貨櫃航商結盟之夥伴關係風險=Partnership Risk between Port Operator and Container Carrier: On Port Operator Viewpoint |
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作 者 | 馮正民; 曹至宏; |
書刊名 | 交通運輸 |
卷 期 | 22 2003.06[民92.06] |
頁 次 | 頁35-50 |
分類號 | 557.532 |
關鍵詞 | 港埠; 策略聯盟; 夥伴關係; 風險; 模擬; Partnership; Strategic alliances; Risk; Port; Simulation; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 當前港埠面對國際新興港埠間白熱化之競爭,為獲得競爭優勢,港埠經營者開始思考利用夥伴關係構建策略進行垂直整合,特別是為貨櫃航商。然而,風險乃構建該類關係之核心議題。過去業已有許多文獻針對夥伴關係風險問題進行性理論與實務之探討,本研究則嘗試建立數量化之風險分析模式探討以貨櫃港埠經營者角度下,與貨櫃航商構建夥伴關係之風險情況。 本研究以港埠經營業為主題,透過考量貨櫃航運業夥伴關係之構建,整理出影響夥伴關係成功之相關重要因素包括相互依賴性、價值分享、溝通能力及對方片面之投機行為四種風險因子。歸納出夥伴關係型態,依資源步入與所有權差益區分為無資源步入型、資源涉入型及交叉涉入型等三種夥伴關係。並定義夥伴關係風險為港埠經營決策者主觀預設與經過模式客觀估算期望收益間之差異。 本模式歸納出夥伴關係生命週期之兩個階段分別為關係構建期與關係存續期。依其構建隨機過程,透過@RISK軟體操作蒙地卡羅法模擬之。在與八名高階貨櫃航商經理人深度訪談後,獲得相關情境參數進行實例驗證。再經一千次模擬及利用三角形機率函數模擬不同夥伴關係類型下不同情境之風險值。發現:資源交叉涉入型夥伴關係相較於其他兩類夥伴關係類型具有較高之風險值;透過20%與40%市場佔有率貨櫃航商之模擬,獲得較大規模之夥伴關係成員亦較小規模之成員承受較大之風險變異。最後,建議未來強化風險降低策略之研擬。 |
英文摘要 | Nowadays, the container ports face fierce competition from the growing number of global players. In order to gain competitive advantage, container port operators have begun to apply partnering strategies to the integration of the resources of their vertical allies, especially the container carriers. Intelligent management of the involved risk is the core issue in determining and effective partnering strategy. But there have been few quantitative researches to examine an effective partnering strategy. But there have been few quantitative researches to examine its practices. So this paper aims to establish a risk analysis model to examine the partnering between port operator and container carriers. This study identified by the resource allocation and ownership methodology of each, and concludes four risk factors, such as Interdependence level, Objectives consensus, Information sharing and Speculation behaviors. This study identifies three types of partnership depending on the resources spent, i.e., no resource involving partnership, resources involving partnership, and resources crossly-involving partner ship. The partnering risk is defined as the difference between presetting and expected revenue for the port operator. The quantitative model is designated to be stochastic processes and measured through Monte Carlo simulations using the computer software of @RISK. The case study was conducted through interviewing eight high-ranking officers of container carriers to obtain required parameters. Triangle distributions and 1,000 iterations are justified to simulate the risks of different partnering scenarios. The study found that higher risks would occur in crossly-involving partnering than other partnering scenarios. Empirically, the variation of risk incurred to small-scale partnered carriers, shoes market share less than 2-%, was found to be smaller than that to the big-scale ones, whose market share more than 40%. Finally risk mitigation measures recommended for the future partnering decision. |