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題名 | 我國3G行動電話執照發放方式對政府收入與業者獲利之影響=Using Scenario Analysis to Analyze the Financial Impacts of Licensing Fees/Auction Prices on Government Revenue and Operator Profitability in Taiwan |
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作者 | 李宗耀; 徐作聖; 虞孝成; 張世其; Lee, Zon-yau; Shyu, Joseph Z.; Yu, Hsiao-cheng; Chang, Shih-chi; |
期刊 | 中山管理評論 |
出版日期 | 20031200 |
卷期 | 11:4 2003.12[民92.12] |
頁次 | 頁707-738 |
分類號 | 557.7 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 第三代行動通信; 競標制; 評審制; 評審競標制; 固定執照費評審制; 情境分析; 淨現值; 內部報酬率; 3G; Auction; Beauty contest; Tender; Scenario analysis; NPV; IRR; |
中文摘要 | 我國3G電信執照採取何種發放方式,對於政府稅收、通信技術之提昇、電信服務應用之發展及資本市場資金之排擠效應都有深遠的影響。3G市場未來走向,實際上受到太多變數及不確定性因子的影響。本文以國外發放3G執照之各種方式及金額作為參考指標,模擬國內三種反映高度、中度及低度3G市場成長的情境,並假設未來3G營運的諸多變數,利用投資報酬率的分析方法針對3G執照各種發放方式下,政府規定的相關3G執照費率以及競標金額,分別估計政府收入與業者獲利之影響。本文提供模式假設之變數以及在不同情境下估算之金額,可供電信總局未來在擬訂執照發放方式與執行細節時之參考,可模擬不同競標金底價或執照費對政府與業者之影響;業者亦可以利用此模式,估算在財務可行的範圍內適宜參與競標金額之上限。 |
英文摘要 | The release of third-generation (3G) mobile communications licenses signals the beginning of a new telecommunications era and the birth of new players in a potentially enormous market. The 3G licensing mechanism a country selects will impact both the income to the government as well as the competitiveness and profitability of 3G operators. Possible licensing policies include Auction, Beauty Contest, Tender, and Beauty Contest with Fixed License Fee. Inevitably, unknown variables and uncertain factors will affect future 3G markets. This paper hypothesizes three 3G-market-growth scenarios for Taiwan: the optimistic scenario of high growth, the pessimistic scenario of low growth, and the middle-ground scenario of normal growth. Hypothetical licensing fees/bidding prices are estimated by taking averages out of the outcomes from countries that have already awarded 3G licenses. Investment return indicators of Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) are calculated from the perspectives of both the government and the 3G operators for each of the four licensing mechanisms. Scenario analysis model is used to study the financial impacts of the licensing fees/bidding prices of alternative 3G licensing policies on government income as well as on the profitability of 3G licensees. The results could serve as references to government regulators in term of setting up reasonable 3G licensing fees/lower bounds of bidding prices. As to 3G license contenders, this model can be used to assess the upper bound of financially feasible bidding prices. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。