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頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 兩岸產業關聯效果與經貿效益(1987∼1997)=The Interindustry Linkage and Effectiveness of Trade Between Mainland China and Taiwan (1987∼1997) |
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作 者 | 練有為; | 書刊名 | 德明學報 |
卷 期 | 22 2003.12[民92.12] |
頁 次 | 頁119-138 |
分類號 | 555.9 |
關鍵詞 | 區域間投入產出表; 投入產出分析; Interregional input-output table; Input-output analysis; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 自從大陸採開放門戶政策,兩岸經貿交流日益頻繁,大陸地區之經濟成長對臺灣地區的經濟有舉足輕重的影響。本研究爰用Miyazawa(1966)分割矩陣和Akita(1992, 1994, 2002)所發展出之擴展的成長因素分解公式來探討1987-1997臺灣地區金融大幅開放後之兩岸產業發展,前者可剖析區域間之關聯效果,後者可解析成長之因子是來自本區抑或他區,此源自他區之成長因子包括透過乘數效果所帶動之他區需求變化對本區之影響,此法亦可分析因區域間投入係數變化所造成之區域成長來源。 Miyazawa分割矩陣之實證結果顯示:雖然臺灣地區之外部產業關聯效果因兩岸經貿交流而受惠,但內部產業關聯效果呈現衰退狀態;相對的,大陸地區產業不論外部或內部產業關聯效果皆有成長。 若就Akita模型觀之:兩岸產業皆因交流而受惠,臺灣因出口大陸獲利更多,但技術效率成可能因產業外流而退步;惟從金融業比較,臺灣金融業成長源自於大陸地區之最終需求增加之效果為289百萬美元,反觀大陸地區金融業受惠於臺灣則只有39百萬美元;臺灣金融業成長來自於技術進步所引起的為118百萬美元,大於大陸地區金融業受惠於臺灣的互動效果47百萬美元,惟若加計其餘效果(進口替代,出口和最終需求增加),兩岸經貿之成長仍對大陸金融業之經濟成長有85.9百萬美元之貢獻,對臺灣金融業之經濟成長則有406.3百萬美元之貢獻。職是之故,採取適度之產業政策及兩岸政策對臺灣的經濟發展是必要的。 |
英文摘要 | This paper examines the sources of structural changes in output growth of Taiwan and Chinese mainland's economy over 1987-97 using both Miyazawa's partitioned matrix and Akita's extended growth--factor decomposition equation within the input-output framework for analyzing output changes from a demand side perspective after the reform of financial system. It decomposes output growth into changes in intermediate input use, domestic demand, import substitution and export components which can be decomposed into foreign trade and cross strait trade further. According to the empirical test of Miyazawa model, Taiwan's internal industry linkage is getting worse although her external industry is better than before from cross-strait trade. However, mainland China has better performance on both linkages. In Akita's model, it is found that, the benefit from cross-strait trade of Taiwan's banking industry is better than mainland China since the liberalization of financial market in Taiwan and the open market of Mainland China. However, the insurance industry of mainland China has better technical efficiency from the build up of her social insurance system. Hence, adopting suitable industry development and cross-strait strategies are essential to Taiwan's economic development. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。