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題 名 | 股票投資評選矩陣模式=A Matrix Model of Stocks Selection |
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作 者 | 莊汪清; 劉芳敏; | 書刊名 | 康寧學報 |
卷 期 | 5 2003.06[民92.06] |
頁 次 | 頁115-146 |
分類號 | 563.53 |
關鍵詞 | 資料包絡分析; 層級分析法; 績效; 市場評價; Data envelopment analysis; Analytic hierarchy process; Performance; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文旨在構建一個股票投資矩陣模式,其適用於同一產業下相關股票之間的評比,以作為投資人及證券分析師制定選股決策的參考。股票投資分析,市場上經常使用相對指標法,作為標的評估法則,但其決策品質並不理想。本研究模式的提出,除了可改善投資決策品質外,同時也能提升在股票評價實務操作上的信度和效度。本模式以經營績效及市場評價為股票投資評估構面,其中營績效則是由經營效率和獲利能力組合建構而成,透過資料包絡分析模型(DEA)及層級分析法(AHP)得到各構面的相對綜合值,以其中位數將投資標的分為持有、留意,投機和避免四種屬性。再應用經營績效值與市場評價的比,將各類投資屬性中的公司股票加以排序,有利於投資決策的參考。本文研究結果顯示,本模式確實可以改善投資決策品質,運用事後驗證,排序結果以2000年的效果為佳。 |
英文摘要 | This paper has offered a matrix model of selecting stocks to assist individual investors and security analysts with making investment decisions. Practical operation in stock appraisal, people are used to exploiting relative evaluations as analytic tools, which validity are often in doubt. This model we propose, in addition to improve decision quality in stock investment, coincidently boost the validity and reliability in practical operation for stock assessment. Through the methodologies of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we assess and compare with each company in certain industry through two dimensions that are operational performance and market valuation, which form the main framework of this research. However, operational efficiency and profitability are assembled into operational performance. Through these dimensions, the model has been decomposed into four attributions of stocks, which are "Keep", "Attend", "Speculate" and "Avoid". It is helpful for investors to select stocks through the way that each categorized attribute of stocks have been arranged in order by "the ratio of operational performance and market valuation". |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。