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題名 | 以風險度為基準之電廠預防維護策略探討=Risk-Based Preventive Maintenance Policies for Power Plants |
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作者姓名(中文) | 游章雄; 吳文方; | 書刊名 | 國立臺灣大學工程學刊 |
卷期 | 87 2003.02[民92.02] |
頁次 | 頁15-27 |
專輯 | 「機械工程」專輯 |
分類號 | 449.8 |
關鍵詞 | 預防維護; 風險度; 機率失效分析; 機率風險評估; 重要度量測; Preventive maintenance; Risk; Probabilistic failure analysis; Probabilistic risk assessment; Importance measure; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 如何兼顧電廠之安全與成本是每個經營者所期望的,而此目標能否達成與電廠之維護策略習習相關,為此,本文以電廠安全相關之管路系統為例,建構其風險度為基準之預防維護策略。在風險度量化之考量下,本文提出了兩種分析模式,一種為機率失效分析模式,考慮各項影響管路裂紋成長參數及材料性質之隨機性,以蒙地卡羅模擬及應力-強度干擾方法,求出管路之失效機率;另一種為機率風險評估模式,以事件樹及故障樹之分析方法,求出電廠可能之事故風險。最後,再利用管路之失效機率與其失效所產生之事故風險計算得出管路之真正風險,並以重要度量測出低風險、中風險及高風險之管路,以進行預防維護策略之調整。經過數值分析的結果顯示:本文所建立之方法具有降低維護成本同時維持電廠安全性之優點,並可將維護人力及費用集中於高安全重要度之構件上,以充份發揮預防維護之效益。 |
英文摘要 | How to reach the balance of safety and cost in power plant maintenance is the most desired expectation of a plant owner. This goal, in fact, can be fulfilled by a proper maintenance policy. This paper establishes a risk-based preventive maintenance policy for a safety related piping system in a power plant. Two models including a probabilistic failure analysis model and a probabilistic risk assessment model are addressed for the quantitative risk measure. The probabilistic failure analysis model considers random parameters that can affect the propagation of the crack and use Monte Carlo simulation and stress-strength interference theory to find the failure probability of the piping system. The probabilistic risk assessment model utilizes analytical methods such as event tree and fault tree to obtain the risk of the plant caused by its component failure including that of piping. The product of the piping failure probability and the risk caused by the piping failure results in the real risk of the piping. The degrees of risk for different piping systems can then be ranked and its result can be used to adjust the plant maintenance strategy. Results of the numerical analysis indicate that the risk-based analysis can really reduce the maintenance cost and still retain the safety of a power plant. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。