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題 名 | 氣候變遷對臺灣中部山區植物群系之影響(2)不確定性分析=Impacts of Climate Change on the Montane Vegetation Formations of Central Taiwan (2):An Uncertainty Analysis |
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作 者 | 羅悅心; 關秉宗; | 書刊名 | 國立臺灣大學農學院實驗林研究報告 |
卷 期 | 13:4=226 1999.12[民88.12] |
頁 次 | 頁265-278 |
分類號 | 436.195 |
關鍵詞 | 氣候變遷; 植物群系; Holdridge生物區帶模式; 不確定性分析; Climate change; Vegetation formations; Holdridge Life Zone Model; Uncertainty analysis; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究之目的乃在利用不確定性分析評估Holdridge生物區帶模式中年平均生物溫度與年平均降水等兩個參數之變異是否影響「氣候變遷對臺灣中部山區植物群系之影響(一)以Holdridge生物區帶模式評估」所得之預測結果及其影響程度。本研究利用蒙地卡羅(Monte Carlo)模擬之方式,產生變異不同之β分佈的逢機變值,並將之帶入Holdridge生物區帶模式。研究結果顯示,就臺灣中高海拔山區而言,Holdridge生物區帶模式之參數中,年平均生物溫度為較敏感之參數,而年平均降水量對預測結果之影響較輕微。 本研究顯示臺灣中部山區在兩倍二氧化碳濃度下,將有可能發展出較一倍二氧化碳濃度時為溫暖之植物群系,然並非全面取代。本研究亦顯示Holdridge生物區帶模式可能不適用於臺灣高海拔地區。 |
英文摘要 | The objective of this study was to conduct an uncertainty analysis on Holdridge Life Zone model to determine the effects of parameter variability on the results given in "Impacts of Climate Change on the Montane Vegetation Formations of Central Taiwan (I)Assessment Based on Holdridge Life Zone Model". By adopting a Monte Carlo approach with random variates generated from β distributions with different variances, the effects of mean annual biotemperature and mean annual precipitation were determined independently. This study showed that for Taiwan's alpine and sub-alpine areas, biotemperature had greater influences on the vegetation formation of those areas than annual precipitation had. The results also indicated that for Taiwan's montane areas warmer vegetation formations would develop under 2×CO2 condition, though they would not complete replace the ones under 1×CO2 condition. Finally, the study suggested that Holdridge Life Zone model might be inappropriate for assessing the impacts of climate change on high elevation areas of Taiwan due to the 'low temperature, high precipitation' characteristics of the areas. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。