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題 名 | 結合水文模式與氣象資料預報長期逕流量之研究=Long-term Runoff Forecasting by Combining Hydrological Models and Meteorological Records |
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作 者 | 楊道昌; 陳姜琦; 吳雷根; 游保杉; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷 期 | 49:1 2003.03[民92.03] |
頁 次 | 頁23-33 |
分類號 | 443.96 |
關鍵詞 | 連續型降雨--逕流模式; 長期天氣展望; 流量預報; Continuous rainfall-runoff model; Long-term weather outlook; Inflow forecasting; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 水庫放水操作經常以水庫上游集水區之入流量為參考依據,倘能先前預報入流量將有助於洪汛期間與枯水期間水庫蓄水量之操作與管理。因此,本研究結合連續型降雨-逕流模式與氣象局長期天氣展望之預報結果,進行未來三旬之水庫長期入流量預報。模式之率定與驗證工作採用曾文水庫33年之歷史旬降雨與逕流量資料來進行。分析結果發現:本模式對於旬流量具有良好的模擬精度。由於傳統水庫操作對於未來入流量之預報係以各旬歷年入流量平均值為參考基準,本研究進一步比較模式之預報能力與直接利用平均值為參考基準等兩種方式之優劣。由分析結果可得知:本研究發展之長期入流量預報系統具有預報未來三旬水庫入流量之潛力。 |
英文摘要 | Inflows of reservoir from upstream catchments are important information for reservoir operation. If the inflows of reservoir can be forecasted precisely, that may benefit the reservoir operation and management. This study aims to forecast three ten-day ahead inflows by using a continuous rainfall-runoff model coupled with the long-term weather outlook provided by the Central Weather Bureau. Model calibration and verification by using 33-year historical records of Tseng-Wen reservoir reveal that the continuous rainfall-runoff model has good performances on ten-day flow simulation. This work further compared ten-day inflow forecasted in the study with the historical average ten-day inflow, which is always chosen as a reference for reservoir operation. It's found that the hybrid model proposed herein has potential to forecast three ten-day ahead inflows. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。