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題名 | 長期氣象判讀在林火行為預測上之應用=Application of Long-term Meteorological Data on Fire Behavior Prediction |
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作 者 | 賴彥任; 邱祈榮; 林朝欽; | 書刊名 | 國立臺灣大學農學院實驗林研究報告 |
卷期 | 16:4=238 2002.12[民91.12] |
頁次 | 頁253-267 |
分類號 | 436.31 |
關鍵詞 | 林火氣象; 林火行為; 山谷風; 合成風; Fire weather; Fire behavior; Mountain-Valley breeze; Resultant wind; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 林火氣象為林火行為中最難以預測的因子之一,然而並非完全無法掌握。藉由長期的氣象資料累積與分析,可以事先判斷潛在的變化趨勢。氣象資料中以風、氣溫、相對濕度與降雨為影響林火行為的重要因子,尤以風為林火發生中最具影響力之氣象因子。一般而言,臺灣山區受盛行風與山谷風之交互影響,長期氣象資料顯示,竹子湖受盛行風影響較大;日月潭雖每日有規律變化,但變化方式卻非海陸風或山谷風之特徵,可能受湖泊及周圍地形影響而有特殊型態;阿里山則在7~12月有明顯的山谷風特徵,1~6月雖有山谷風特徵,但亦受盛行風影響。至於相對濕度,以45%為引燃的臨界時,竹子湖在4月;日月潭在12和1月;阿里山則從11月到隔年4月較可能影響林火發生。 由於臺灣的地形複雜,各地的氣象皆有其特性,對林火行為之影響亦有不同。因此,臺灣實應建立山區長期氣象資料收集系統,以供林火行為預測之參考,同時亦可將氣象資料應用在林火預警方面,以提昇林火管理之成效。 |
英文摘要 | Meteorological data is one of the most difficult predictable parameters in fire behavior, but doesn’t mean that couldn’t be handled at all. The potential fire behavior can still be predicted by analyzing long-term meteorological data. According to the result of this study, wind characters which affect fire behavior are dominated by monsoon at Chut-Ze-Hu area. While it is dominated by both lake and terrain effect at Sun-Moon-Lake area. But at A-Li-Shan area, it shows obvious pattern of mountain-valley breeze from July to December and it dominated by both monsoon and mountain-valley breeze winds from January to June. Concerning ingnition probability, if relative humidity bellows 45% as the criteria, then April is the danger period at Chut-Ze-Hu; Winter (December and Janary) is susceptible at Sun-Moon-Lake. At A-Li-Shan area, November to April of next year are high fire months. In order to provide the fast and correct fire weather information at fire site, we suggest the Taiwan forestry Bureau creates a climate database which especially recommended in mountain and develop a Taiwan fire behavior model in the future. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。