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題名 | 臺灣地區生育率推估方法的研究=A Comparison of Fertility Projection Methods--A Case Study in Taiwan Area |
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作者姓名(中文) | 黃意萍; 余清祥; | 書刊名 | 人口學刊 |
卷期 | 25 2002.12[民91.12] |
頁次 | 頁145-171 |
分類號 | 515.01 |
關鍵詞 | 生育率推估; Gamma函數; Gompertz函數; Lee-Carter法; 交叉驗證; Fertillity projection; Gamma function; Gompertz function; Lee-carter method; Cross validation; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 「生育率的降低」是影響台灣地區近年來人口老化的顯著因素之一,因其變化幅度通常高於死亡率,對人口結構的影響較大。本文研究台灣地區的至49歲五歲一組的婦女生育率,引進Gamma函數、Gompertz函數、Lee-Carter法三種模型及單一年齡組個別估計法,以西 元1951年至1995年的資料為基礎,西元1996年至2∞0年資料為檢測樣本的驗證資料,比較上述四種方法,尋求較適合台灣地區生育率的模型。研究發現如要預測總生育率,建議使用單一年齡組個別估計法或經由WLS修正的Lee-Carter模型;預測年齡別生育率,建議使用單一年齡組個別估計法或Gompertz模型。 |
英文摘要 | In recent years because of the aging population, there have been great changes in Taiwan’s fertility and mortality rates. As the proportion of elderly people aged 65 and over increase dramatically from 2.6% in 1965 to 8.8% in 2001, the decrease of fertility rate is most significant. In 1961, the total fertility rate was 5.58. By 1981, it was dropped to 1.67and in 2001,further to 1.4, a reduction of almost 70% within 20 years. This paper examines the fertility pattern in the Taiwan area. In particular, it aims to review the various fertility models and seek for the model that is most appropriate for describing the situation in Taiwan. The models considered are Gamma function, Gompertz function, Lee-Carter method and individual group estimation. Data from 1951 to 1995 is used as a pilot for verifying the model which has the best fit for data gathered from 1996 to 2000. It is found that individual group estimation and the Lee-Carter method have least errors for predicting total fertility rates; while individual group estimation and Gompertz function are more effective for predicting age-specific fertility rates. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。